Home >

In February, PMI Was Affected By The Season.

2011/2/28 19:30:00 78

The most important economic data this week are

Purchase

Manager index (PMI).

Due to the continued impact of tightening policy since November last year, the market expects PMI to decrease in February.

Since the beginning of this year, the people's Bank of China has carried out a 25 basis point interest rate increase, and the two time has raised the deposit reserve ratio by 50 basis points.

However, domestic economic growth remains strong and the PMI index remains above 50%.

However, it should be pointed out that the data in January and February have been affected by the Lunar New Year's season and thus somewhat lower.

The PMI index is expected to be released in March 1st.

The Spanish foreign bank's emerging market research report said February

PMI

The index consensus is 52.1%, lower than the previous month's 52.9%.

If actual data are higher than expected, it may lead to further tightening expectations.

But the single PMI data also can not explain the problem, investors need to wait for mid March released CPI, money, credit, investment and other data to provide more information.

Gao Ting, chief China investment strategist at UBS Securities and chief investment officer, said recently that the positive return of the A share market is about 15% to 20% this year, but there will not be a big bull market.

A greater probability is that the deviation between the performance of listed companies and the share price will be amended this year.

He said that the above judgment was based on the growth of the performance of listed companies.

External demand

Improvement and liquidity improvement.

The performance of listed companies will generally increase by 20% in 2010, and this trend will remain this year.

The external demand will continue to improve due to the recovery of Europe, especially the US economy, which is also a favorable factor for China's economy.

In addition, in the first half of the year, there was no big problem with liquidity because of the large amount of lending in the banking system.

But uncertainty still lies in the inflation situation.

Gao said that the market consensus is expected that inflation will improve in the two quarter and that the pressure in the second half of this year will be significantly less than that in the first half.

But if this expectation is lost, the market will have larger fluctuations to correct the expected errors.

At present, the uncertainty factor of international oil price is a hidden worry, but this factor still needs time to pmit to the domestic market.

Judging from past experience, the rise in crude oil prices often leads to chain reaction of commodity prices, which eventually leads to imported inflation.

It is hard to predict whether the major oil producing countries in the Middle East will be affected by the situation in Libya. Therefore, oil prices continue to rise in panic. This external factor needs to be closely watched in the future.