CPL Anti Dumping Knife End Up &Nbsp; Reposition Of Nylon Industry

In February 12th, the fiber price index showed that the price of CPL was $3430 / ton, up 10 US dollars / ton compared with the previous day, and the price of CPL was 27600 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton compared with the previous day.

And the CPL released by the Ministry of Commerce in January 24th

A margin of more than 8% is equivalent to 100%.

This is the first time that we can see what is expected of the job. After all, CPL,

However, in the industry, it is expected that the high proportion of margin will cause greater damage to downstream interests.

According to the announcement of the Ministry of Commerce, since January 25th, the 4.3%~25.5% deposit has been levied on CPL originating in the EU and the United States.

Among them, the proportion of margin collected by BASF and EU companies is 12.1%, while the DSM European Union and American companies collect 8% and 11% respectively, and the other European Union and American companies outside the list are 25.5% and 24.2% respectively.

"When the ratio of margin collection exceeds 8%, it is largely equivalent to the 100% levy, because few enterprises can bear 8% of the raw material price.

In other words, when the margin ratio exceeds this limit, domestic enterprises have to abandon these import sources, which means that the high quality raw material channels have been lost.

Industry authority analysis.

Still, the old saying is that the anti-dumping is likely to be domestic.

From the macro data analysis, China's CPL self-sufficiency rate has been maintained at about 35% for a long time, and 65% has been dependent on imports.

In 2010, the domestic CPL output was 488 thousand tons, and the import volume was 631 thousand and 400 tons, and the dependence on imports was still close to 60%.

From caprolactam, nylon 6 Slice capacity and the next 5 years development plan, by 2015, caprolactam production capacity will reach 600 thousand tons in China, and nylon 6 slice production capacity is expected to reach more than 1 million 700 thousand tons.

Under the premise that the import quantity of caprolactam can not exceed 700 thousand tons, the domestic production and import of caprolactam can not meet the downstream needs far.

The development of caprolactam industry in China has been faced with problems of productivity and quality.

Due to the restriction of production technology, domestic caprolactam products are relatively unstable and the quality is not stable. The quantity of caprolactam can not meet the requirements of producing high-speed spinning nylon 6.

Caprolactam plant abroad has been in production for over 70 years, and has unique technology (such as BASF, DSM and Belgium, Germany and other related enterprises in Holland). Its products are of high quality and stable supply.

In the next few years, the dependence on caprolactam in China is still hard to change.

Anti dumping is not the only factor.

According to the reporter's understanding, the micro perception of enterprises coincides with macro data.

Zhejiang Huajian nylon and other single polymerization enterprises have clearly felt the pressure of operation. The caprolactam of Huajian nylon imports all comes from the European Union and the United States. Fujian Jinjiang science and technology has 100 thousand tons of spinning capacity and is currently on the polymerization plant. However, CPL anti-dumping has hindered this plan, and the head of the enterprise is planning to "go one step at a time".

In terms of the new capacity of CPL, a Shandong company originally planned to launch 200 thousand tons of CPL capacity in October last year and postponed its commissioning in May this year. However, due to some disputes, it is still uncertain whether it can be put into production.

At present, most people in China would like to be put on the CPL project in Hengyi, Zhejiang. But from the current progress, it will take some time to put into production.

In the interview, reporters found that in addition to "helplessness" and "attack", there was also a large proportion of emotion, that is, "it doesn't matter".

In the words of the head of Qingdao Zhongda, "the superposition of exchange rate changes and interest rates has weakened the influence of anti-dumping.

Moreover, CPL anti-dumping has gone through a long time from filing to initial ruling. Under the circumstances of multiple communication and hard work, the industry has already acquiesced in the fact that anti-dumping has been established.

Qingdao Zhongda has 12 thousand tons of nylon spinning capacity (mostly nylon and fine denier yarn), and is currently planning new equipment.

Many enterprises have reflected that in 2010, they had been under the pressure of high price of raw materials for a year. At present, the factors that affect the market outlook are complex and changeable.

Tariff reversal may become a new focus {page_break}

After the CPL anti-dumping is a foregone conclusion, the tariff upside down problem in the nylon industry may cause more attention.

After all, the current CPL import policy is very important for the operation and development of the nylon industry.

At present, the import tariffs of CPL in Japan are 4.7%, South Korea is 3%, Taiwan is 1%, Indonesia is 0, Philippines is 0, Malaysia is 1%.

China's CPL, nylon 6 and nylon 6 import tariffs are currently 7%, 6.5% and 5% respectively.

According to the analysis of the industry, the "tariff inversion" will inevitably lead to this situation: international investors are rapidly expanding the downstream production capacity against the shortage of caprolactam resources in China and the strong demand for downstream products, and occupying the domestic market with downstream products.

In recent years, the rapid growth of aggregate production capacity in Taiwan area and the large number of exports to the mainland is a good example.

According to the relevant statistics, the cost increases due to the large tariff differences with neighboring countries and regions. Since 2002, 34 nylon production enterprises have been shut down, stopped and gone bankrupt, and the total capacity of the industry exceeds 1/4. The aggregate production capacity of the small and medium-sized enterprises below 10 thousand tons has been completely shut down, and the 12 new businesses that have been shut down and stopped in 2008, and the total operating rate of the enterprises with the remaining production starts is less than 50%.

In 2009, the state lowered the import tariff of CPL from 9% to 5% and so on, making the production and operation of nylon industry better.

In 2010, taking into account the interests of the upstream and downstream parties, the state once again raised the import tariff of CPL to 7%.

It is foreseeable that, on the one hand, the anti-dumping will increase the shortage of high quality raw materials in the domestic market, to a certain extent, to restrain the further expansion of domestic aggregate production capacity and the upgrading of technology.

On the contrary, nylon and slicing enterprises in Taiwan and Southeast Asian countries will further expand their market share in mainland China by using the advantages of customs and raw material procurement.

On the other hand, anti-dumping will also "push" upstream and downstream enterprises innovation cooperation, to achieve unprecedented integration.

It is understood that within a few days after the release of the initial anti-dumping measures, the industry associations have already joined the upstream and downstream enterprises to explore future cooperation and development plans.