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China'S PMI Rose For The First Time After April

2011/1/4 10:21:00 61

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　　 January 1, China Logistics And Purchasing Federation (CFLP) was released in December 2010 China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI), 53.9%, 1.3 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, which is the first time that PMI has fallen after four consecutive months of recovery.

Each sub index reveals that the overall data in December 2010 showed a downward trend. Compared with November, the new export order index, backlog order index, finished product inventory index, raw material inventory index and supplier delivery time index increased, but the increase was small, mostly within 1 percentage point; the other indexes all decreased. Among them, the new order index and the purchase price index decreased by 2.9 and 6.8 percentage points respectively.

Special analyst Zhang Liqun analyzed that: "the PMI index in December decreased by 1.3 percentage points compared with the previous month, among which the new order index decreased more obviously, which is worthy of attention. Compared with last month, the economic growth rate and industrial growth rate will not increase slightly in the future

According to the data, the index of new orders in December 2010 was 55.4%, down 2.9 percentage points from November, showing a moderate downward trend in demand. The export order index was 53.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from November. The index has risen slightly in recent two months, indicating that exports have risen steadily.

According to the report of China Logistics Information Center, from the perspective of new order index, market demand has been rising for four consecutive months, reaching a periodic high of 58.3% in November 2010, and falling down in December, which is still as high as 55% at present, "it is a moderate correction after rising to a certain stage, which is a normal phenomenon, and does not reflect the trend of domestic demand decline."

In terms of the purchase price index, it was 66.7% in December 2010, 6.8% lower than that in November. According to the report, this shows that a series of measures taken by the state to stabilize prices have achieved initial results. Although the index has declined, it is still at a high level, and the pressure is still great in the later stage.

From the industry point of view, most of the industry's purchase price index remains above 60%. In some industries, such as mechanical and electrical equipment manufacturing, ferrous metal manufacturing, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, the purchasing price index has even reached about 70%. This reflects the new characteristics of the current price situation, that is, from the early grain and food leading the market price rise to the energy and basic raw material price rise, this trend will increase the production and operation pressure of enterprises and weaken the export competitiveness of China's advantageous industries.

According to the report, judging from the PMI index of 2010, China's manufacturing PMI continued to rise in the first half of the year, with an average level of 54.1%, indicating that the national stimulus policy to maintain growth has continued to play a role since 2009, and the economy has continued to recover; in the second half of the year, it has made a correction, but the growth is more stable, with an average level of 53.4%, indicating that economic development has recovered from the stimulus policy, The steady and rapid growth under the gradual return to normal has laid a good foundation for economic development in 2011.

PMI is one of the international macroeconomic monitoring index systems, which plays an important role in monitoring and forecasting national economic activities. 50% is usually used as the dividing line between the strong and the weak. If PMI is higher than 50%, it reflects the economic expansion of manufacturing industry; if it is lower than 50%, it reflects the economic recession of manufacturing industry.