Beyond Crisis And Prosperity -- Review Of World Economy In The First Ten Years Of Twenty-First Century

From 2001 to 2010, crises and prosperity are at the same time, and destruction and progress coexist.

"This is the best and the worst of times."

It is quite appropriate to describe the world economy over the past ten years in the classical language of Dickens, the British novelist in nineteenth Century.

　　 Global development Progressive skeleton

If the world is still in the chaos period after the end of the cold war in 1990s, the development of the world economic structure has become clearer in the first ten years of twenty-first Century.

In the past ten years, world economy Continue to evolve along a variety of development paths. The international financial crisis, which originated in the US Wall Street, shows that western economic and financial systems are not only insufficient to become a unified global paradigm, but also have inherent defects. The vast majority of emerging market countries and developing countries have chosen suitable development methods suited to their respective national conditions to better cope with the impact of the crisis and become a positive force to promote world economic recovery.

Overall, this is the ten year without large-scale war and large-scale natural disasters. Although the world economy is constantly exposed to the undercurrents of the reef, and even suffered from the Internet crisis and the financial crisis, it has maintained overall growth and increased global output. International Trade The expansion of international industrial division and cooperation is deepening, and globalization and regionalization are also developing in depth.

Thanks to the rapid development of science and technology, especially communications technology, the new trend of globalization since 1980s has obviously accelerated. With an irresistible trend, more people, larger markets and richer resources are brought into the global economic system. The wealth created by all mankind has increased, economic contacts among countries have expanded, and the living standard of most people has increased.

Even the two crises have brought great impact on the world economy and laid the foreshadowing for the future development of the world economy. Thomas Friedman, author of "the world is flat," believes that investment in the Internet infrastructure during the Internet bubble period has laid a solid foundation for further development of globalization after the crisis.

At present, the calls for strengthening international financial regulation are strengthened, the willingness to reform the international economic and financial systems will be expanded, and the idea of seeking green, low-carbon, environmental protection and sustainable development will become more popular among the people. All of these may become the driving force for the development of world economy in the next ten years.

National changes take different positions.

In the context of the overall sustainable development of the world economy, the economic changes in the past ten years have been very different in every country or region.

Developed countries led by the United States, the first ten years of the new century began with a crisis and ended in the subsequent impact of another major crisis. From the Internet bubble to the housing market bubble to the financial turmoil, from crisis to prosperity to a bigger crisis, this is a struggle, some entanglements and a faltering ten years. Simon Johnson, a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, said that the abnormal development of financial industry and the prevalence of speculation led to the cycle of American economic experience from "boom" to "doom".

At the same time, the BRICs are thriving, the Asia Pacific region is thriving, the African continent is in disorder, and Latin American countries are developing rapidly. For the vast number of emerging market countries and developing countries, although economic development is far from plain sailing, in general, this is the ten year of relative stability, continuous development and great economic and social progress.

Different countries have different circumstances, different development speed and different economic strength, which makes the contrast between developed countries and developing countries in relative strength. In this way, the world economic structure is moving towards a more balanced and reasonable direction.

The change of pattern brings historic changes. The International Monetary Fund, the world bank, the group of eight and the group of twenty... Great changes have taken place in the internal structure or international status. Developing countries occupy half of the group of twenty to replace the G-8 as the main platform for international economic governance.

Some analysts believe that in the past ten years, for developed countries, in trying to break through the "boom and bust" cycle, they need to reflect more on their own development models. They should be modest when setting up global economic and financial rules, and show tolerance when looking at the achievements made by different countries. For developing countries, they need to assess their achievements and problems in pursuit of sustainable development. They need to be more open to globalization and show new wisdom in promoting the establishment of new international economic and financial systems.

Tide of history

Looking forward to the next ten years, the changing pattern of world economy is irreversible. From 2011 to 2020, this will be the second ten years of China's "important strategic opportunities". It will also be the ten year of world economic transformation, great adjustment and great development after the "one hundred year experience" international financial crisis. There are various indications that the world economic development will show three major trends.

First of all, the world economic structure will accelerate and major adjustments will be made in the way of development. The international financial crisis has shattered the "bubble" of the American people's debt consumption and the financial institutions' debt speculation, making the economic restructuring of the developed countries new momentum. From the Obama administration's emphasis on "export doubling" in a few years, to the re industrializing of the economy in some western countries, they all focus on straightening out the relationship between savings and consumption, fictitious economy and real economy.

At the same time, China and other emerging market and developing countries need to reduce their dependence on exports, improve the social security system, improve the reform of the income distribution system, expand domestic demand, stimulate consumption and improve people's livelihood.

In general, despite the immeasurable factors of large-scale war, plague and natural disasters, the emerging market countries and developing countries are expected to continue to usher in the ten years of development and progress. The developing countries' position in the world economic structure will be further enhanced, and the reform of world economic governance will continue to be carried out in depth.

In addition, with the increasingly prominent environmental issues, the concept of sustainable development will be further rooted in the hearts of the people. Low carbon economy, green economy and environmental protection economy will gain greater development worldwide.

Second, there will be significant adjustments in the international financial and monetary systems. Fundamentally speaking, the outbreak of the international financial crisis has fully exposed the unsustainability of the current international financial and monetary systems. The developed countries' leading international financial system has also had to face serious problems such as speculation, manipulation and fraud while improving the efficiency of resource allocation.

To strengthen financial supervision is not to curb financial innovation, nor to negate the role of the financial system in the modern economic operation. But if the international financial rules are not readjusted, the so-called "one hundred year experience" international financial crisis is likely to be replayed in a few decades.

In addition, the US dollar led international monetary system is facing increasing risks. The Bretton Woods system has been disintegrated for nearly 40 years, and the US dollar has long been decoupled from hard currency such as gold, but it is still the major international reserve currency, investment currency, trade settlement currency and commodity valuation currency. Because of the economic and political needs of the United States and the long run of the dollar exchange rate and the weakening of the US dollar, the US's sovereign credit and the credit of the US dollar are being eroded. The risk of external "spillover" to the world economy should not be underestimated.

Third, globalization will continue to develop in depth, with risks and opportunities coexisting. In the next ten years, globalization will continue to "transform" the modes of production, consumption patterns and import and export trade of the countries of the world. The world will become more and more flat. The modern communication network with low cost and convenience will make more people who have not or seldom have the opportunity to participate in globalization join in this process.

At the same time, in the fierce global market competition, some vulnerable countries will be further trapped in the predicament due to war, disease, natural disasters and other reasons. The traditional economic powers, because of the adjustment of international industrial division of labor, either smoothly achieve industrial upgrading, have a higher position in the value chain, or are defeated in the competition and are in a passive position. Emerging market countries may also face the so-called "trap of middle-income countries" and other difficult problems.

In short, no matter what country or stage of development it is, there are opportunities and challenges that need to be faced. In the next ten years, as in any ten years in history, opportunities always favor prepared countries, prepared enterprises and prepared people. For the state, enterprises and individuals, the most important thing is to prepare for the rainy day, make good use of the advantages and avoid disadvantages, and make good use of development opportunities.