Brand Clothing Will Usher In High Prosperity &Nbsp; Who Will Be The King Of Clothing?
brand
Fashion boom
International experience shows that when GDP per capita exceeds US $3000,
clothing
Consumption began to enter a fast growing channel. When the per capita GDP reached 5000~8000 dollars, the growth rate of clothing consumption was the fastest.
China's per capita GDP exceeded 3000 US dollars in 2009, and domestic clothing consumption has entered a fast growing channel.
Everbright Securities [15.030.33%] research shows that since 2007, the growth rate of apparel retail sales has been higher than the total retail sales of social consumer goods and the growth of household income.
Official data also showed that in 2010 1~7, the retail sales of clothing in China amounted to 314 billion 100 million yuan, up 23.8% over the same period last year.
In the short term, this year's price increase in clothing retail sales has become the most important driving factor.
In 2010 1~7 month, clothing retail sales increased by 23.87%, of which the price increased by 12.98%, the highest price for the last five years.
The increase in the price in the first three quarters increased by 43.5% compared with the previous quarter, and the net profit increased by 29.99% over the same period last year, which is faster than the growth rate of 16.98 and 31.2 percentage points respectively. The gross profit margin is also 23.01 percentage points higher than the gross profit margin of the plate.
cost
High prices restrict short-term stock prices
However, the recent cotton price has become a negative factor restricting the short-term performance of brand clothing stocks. Cotton prices broke through the 30 thousand yuan / ton mark in November 2010 and hit a record high.
"Cotton price rise is an inevitable trend, but over 30 thousand yuan / ton is irrational."
People in the cotton spinning industry say.
Shenyin Wanguo analyst Wang Liping believes that although the recent decline in cotton prices, but may still be maintained at 23 thousand ~2.5 million yuan / ton of high price.
The rise of labor costs has brought great pressure to labour intensive clothing enterprises.
In 2010, the labor cost of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangdong and other textile industrial clusters increased by 20%~30% on average, higher than that of the same period.
If the high CPI is not effectively suppressed, it will further push up labor prices.
Chen Ping, a representative of the seven wolf wolf securities business, told the "red weekly" that "the rising labor costs and the high price of raw materials directly reflect the rise in the price of purchased garments, which will form a certain pressure on the company. However, because the company bought cloth purchases six months in advance, it has no impact on the overall profitability."
In the context of rising labor costs and high price of raw materials, the ability of garment enterprises to pfer costs is particularly important.
The production cost of brand clothing accounts for about 15%~20% of the terminal price, and the sensitivity of downstream consumers to price is not high. It is easy for enterprises to pass the price rise by raising the price.
Wu Xiaoyu, a researcher at Xiangcai securities, said, "with the coming of winter, the price increase may rise further, and this profit is likely to be reflected in the fourth quarter results".
Who will be the king of clothing?
Clothing companies want to win in the fierce market competition, brand awareness and the ability to grasp the fashion is the most important factor.
From the perspective of the current listed companies, the ranking of the brands in the brand awareness and fashion is the order of the United States, the seven wolves, the wedding birds, and the Kaiser shares.
Seven wolves have now stepped into a stable growth period, the latest phase of the order of a two liter trend is expected to show a happy situation at the end of the year; the three quarter product sales in the three quarter are rising steadily, its business series business growth is stable, the fashion series business increases faster, the group purchase / export business (treasure bird business) resuscitation is higher than expected.
Wang Liping, an analyst at Shen Wan, said that he is optimistic about the growth of companies, especially those in the second tier cities, which already have certain brand awareness and sales channels, and are expanding to three or four tier cities and rural markets. For example, the leading brands of leisure wear and American Apparel are nearly 700 new stores in 2010. It is estimated that the revenue of the retail terminal will be 12 billion ~130 billion yuan in 2010, and the retail terminal will reach 50 billion yuan in 2015, and the income scale will increase by 4 times.
Guotai Junan analyst optimistic about the search for special, think that the company's three or four line city youth casual wear market growth momentum is strong, but search for special issue price earnings ratio is relatively high.
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