The Deposit Reserve Rate Has Reached A Historical High Of &Nbsp; &Nbsp; The Rate Hike Alert Has Not Yet Been Lifted.

　　 Central Bank Last night, the decision was made on the 20 day of this month. Raise Deposit financial institutions RMB Deposit reserve ratio 0.5 percentage points.

This is the sixth time the central bank has raised the deposit reserve rate this year. It is also the third time in the past month that the reserve requirement ratio has been raised. After a rough estimate, the central bank can freeze the liquidity of the banking system by about 300000000000 yuan.

Previously, the central bank has raised the RMB deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions 3 percentage points in January, February and May respectively by 0.5 percentage points. In November 10th, it announced that it had raised the deposit reserve ratio of deposit financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points since 16, and announced in November 19th that the deposit reserve ratio should be raised 0.5 percentage points again from 29.

At this point, if we do not consider the difference in the number of banks previously raised, after the rise, the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions has reached a historical high of 18.5%.

　 - Interpretation

Because of foreign exchange and more credit.

Guo Tianyong, director of the China banking research center of Central University of Finance and Economics, believes that the central bank once again raised the deposit reserve ratio. On the one hand, the central bank's foreign exchange surplus caused by the surplus last month was related to excessive liquidity and inflation expectations. On the other hand, it was also related to the high growth rate of credit in November, in order to reduce the amount of loanable funds of commercial banks in November.

Li Daokui, director of the central bank's monetary policy committee and director of the China and world research center of Tsinghua University, pointed out that raising the reserve rate is aimed at the current liquidity.

　 - Influence

At present, the stock market is down.

Li Xunlei, chief economist of Guotai Junan, believes that the recent stock market changes have responded to the increase in the reserve requirement rate. The aim is only to shrink liquidity, and its impact on listed companies is more moderate than that of raising interest rates, so the stock market rebounded yesterday.

He further said that the stock market will remain volatile at present, and only after raising interest rates will it choose the direction. However, there is little room for the stock market to fall.

- Prospect

Interest rates may not be raised in the near future.

Lin Zhaohui, an analyst with Huatai Securities, said that the reasons for the increase were manifold, including the difference in early maturity, high foreign exchange occupation, difficulty in open market operation and the allocation of Financial deposits. As a result, the possibility of raising interest rates is relatively small during the year.

Haitong Securities macroeconomic analyst Li Mingliang said that the move is in line with expectations. Because the difference between the increase of the deposit reserve ratio and the failure to raise the deposit reserve rate is equivalent to a decline. As long as the major tone is tight, liquidity will continue to be recovered. This move is good for the market, because at least it tells the market that it will not raise interest rates immediately.

In the year Rate hike alert Not yet lifted

Yan Wei, chief economist of Orient Securities, estimates that with the price and liquidity situation still grim next year, 0.5 percentage points are still not enough to curb. It is expected that the reserve requirement ratio will be raised before the end of this year after the announcement of the foreign exchange earnings data, and if the situation continues to deteriorate, the possibility of raising interest rates again will not be ruled out.

Wang Jianhui, chief economist of Southwest Securities, also said that the central bank's adjusted deposit reserve rate is in line with market expectations. He expects that the central bank will raise interest rates once a year. At least until the two quarter of next year, the central bank will maintain a monthly deposit reserve ratio and increase interest rates by at least 25 basis points at least two times in the first quarter of next year.