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Analysis Of Viscose Staple Market Trend

2010/12/9 14:11:00 45

Recent viscose staple market is subject to

cotton

Viscose prices dropped from around 31000 to around 27000 when prices fell sharply.

And there is no market price. The market is moving towards cotton prices.

But we believe that the price of viscose will stabilize and rebound in the future, and the paction will gradually pick up.

First, industry inventory is at a historical low.

Driven by the price of cotton, the current market rose from around 17000 in August 20th to about 31500 in November 12th.

During the period, the price rises, and traders and textile enterprises need to be active. Until the price falls, plus the impact of energy conservation and emission reduction and raw materials shortage, viscose enterprises are basically in a state of no inventory.

Two, traders sell goods

Most of the traders in the current market started to hoard goods over 22000 of the previous high price, and 29000 of them stopped buying goods due to fear of heights. As the 24000~27000 interval was scarce, the average cost of traders was estimated to be around 25000. Recently, traders were losing a lot of stock prices.

Three, cotton prices bottom up

Cotton prices in the short term experienced about 25% of the deep callback, the bottom of the full volume change hands, has shown a bottoming up trend, is expected to be in the 25000~33600 area wide shocks.

Four, the supply of viscose raw materials is insufficient and the price is strong.

In 2011, the viscose industry will expand to 3 million tons, and cotton pulp,

Imported

Wood pulp, bamboo pulp and other new raw materials together can meet the needs of the industry's 2 million tons at most.

Affected by this decline, the viscose price dropped to about 15%, while cotton pulp prices fell by 10% at most.

Sticky short business pressure on future raw materials costs increased.

Five, downstream price pfer smoothly

Due to recognition of inflation, the current round

Quotation

The biggest difference between the past and the past is that the downstream price pmission is smooth. The price of human cotton yarn and cotton cloth almost rises with the price of viscose, and even the price of clothing at the terminal has risen by more than 50% over the previous years.

Once cotton prices rise, viscose is expected to increase rapidly.

Six. Technical analysis

At present, we all pass the cotton price to judge the trend of viscose price, and the financial attributes of viscose increase greatly.

The current market rose from 17000 to 32000. According to the 0.5 golden section callback range, the support level should be around 24500. Combined with the recent cotton trend, we believe that the probability of building up the bottom price of viscose is about 24500.