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Experts Predict: Cotton Will Be The Main Shock In The Late Stage.

2010/12/8 14:22:00 49

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The cotton market has suffered the biggest decline since November 15th.

The price of cotton and the price of cotton were falling down when the "sixteen countries" issued by the state controlled prices and the textile enterprises repeatedly lowered the purchasing price of lint.

Cotton prices have dropped from the highest point to nearly 8000 yuan / ton, down nearly 25%.

At present, the whole cotton market is under the double squeeze of policy and cost, speculative capital.

basic

Squeezed clean, but the spot price and cost price also showed an upside down phenomenon.

Some textile enterprises in the spot market have a slight desire to purchase, and there are small quantities of purchases. But cotton enterprises are reluctant to sell, and the market turnover is still scarce.

At present, the market wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and it is expected that the cotton price will not fluctuate much.

As early as the three quarter data were released, the government set a tone to ensure price stability in the fourth quarter.

The rise of cotton prices in the current round, excluding factors of supply shortage, is entirely caused by speculation of speculative capital. At present, the cost of cotton in the new year is around 27500~28000 yuan / ton nationwide.

According to the survey, under the two-way pressure of policy regulation and cost support, the main speculative capital in the cotton market shows obvious signs of outflow.

The phenomenon of capital speculation has been alleviated.

From the November 15th, the spot price has dropped from 500 yuan per ton per day, and the spot price is obviously lower than the cost. The textile enterprises try to buy in small quantities. In view of the fact that the cost is below 2000 yuan / ton, the intensity of the sentiment that cotton enterprises are reluctant to sell can be imagined.

As of November 29th, the Chinese cotton price index (CC Index 328) was 26289 yuan / ton, and the average price of grade 429 cotton to the factory was 25723 yuan / ton.

After a brief rebound, the price of the futures market is also dropping, which has fallen below two important callbacks. It is now close to the 25000 yuan / ton line.

After the release of the "sixteen countries", CCTV and people's daily have repeatedly referred to commodities, especially the regulation of agricultural products.

Because the price of cotton is lower than the cost price, the futures market also reflects the game between policy and cost.

As of November 29th, the CF1109 contract price of the futures market's main contract was 25240 yuan / ton, struggling under the cost line.

In addition, the recent international situation is also complicated and changeable.

market

All sides are deeply concerned about the spread of Ireland's debt crisis to Portugal and Spain. At the same time, the situation on the Korean Peninsula has also made the international market nervous and risky. The US dollar has risen sharply, and the trend of the peripheral commodities has been weakening.

In December, there will be some foreign cotton coming to Hong Kong, and domestic cotton enterprises will continue to arrive in the United States until the final decision is made.

To sum up, in the more complicated

Factor

Intertwined, cotton prices fell from high to more than 1/4, and has been upside down with the cost, domestic cotton prices continue to decline in space is very limited.

In addition, under the state's policy and regulation environment, cotton prices once again return to the "30 thousand era".

Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate between 24500 yuan and 27500 yuan per ton.

Cotton prices are expected to improve before and after the Spring Festival.