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Deep Investigation: Worries Of China'S Silk Industry (1)

2010/12/7 14:16:00 88

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At present, the whole country is studying and implementing the spirit of the party in the fifth Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee, learning to understand the CPC Central Committee's proposal for formulating the Twelfth Five Year Plan for national economic and social development, and comprehensively summing up the work in the "11th Five-Year" period.

The 12th Five-Year

Planning for the period.

At this moment, looking back at the performance of China's silk industry in recent years, many problems are worth considering in the industry.

The author thinks that "people have no worries and worries". If they do not consider the long-term development of silk industry, their worries will surely appear in the near future.

The influence of the world economy on China's silk export in the post financial crisis era is mainly reflected in the amount of exports and

Export volume

Deviation.

On the face of it, the amount of silk exports in the first three quarters of this year is higher than that of the same period last year, but the export volume is lower than that of the same period last year. This is the result of the volume reduction.

Under such circumstances, it is not difficult to understand that the increase of the amount is less than that of other commodities.

This phenomenon shows that the restrictive effect of high silk prices on the export terminal market is emerging.

On the other hand, the harvesting and drying of autumn cocoons is coming to an end, and autumn is an important harvest season for China's sericulture industry. The purchase price of fresh cocoons in various places is higher.

The purchase price of autumn cocoon in Dongtai, Jiangsu is more than 40 yuan per kilogram, and the purchase price of cocoons in third and fourth batches of Guangxi Yizhou area also exceeds 38 yuan / kg.

The purchase price of other places is basically above 35 yuan / kg, and the price is higher than that of spring cocoon.

Roughly estimated, the purchase price of fresh cocoons increased by more than 65% over the same period last year. The cocoon price of Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Sichuan and Guangxi increased by more than 80% over the same period last year, reaching a new high in 15 years.

From dry cocoon to silk mill sales this spring,

Warehousing and warehousing

As a matter of fact, the price of dry cocoon in Jiaxing has experienced a rare historical rise. The price of dry cocoon trading in the cocoon silk market in Jiaxing has been over 100 thousand yuan / ton until the year June 25, 2011, or even more than 110 thousand yuan / ton in some months.

The average price of B silk trading before June 25, 2011 was 340 thousand yuan / ton, and some months were close to 350 thousand yuan / ton, and the high price record of cocoon silk was constantly refreshed.

I believe that the main reason for the high price of cocoon silk is the imbalance between supply and demand of silkworm cocoons.

On the one hand, the low silk market in 2008 and the low purchasing price of fresh cocoons hit the production enthusiasm of silkworm farmers. The silkworm farmers in southern provinces abandoned the mulberry trees seriously, and with the snow disaster in 2009 and the drought in the western provinces at the beginning of this year, the output of cocoons decreased.

On the other hand, in recent years, influenced by the sudden increase of downstream production enterprises such as home textiles, the production capacity of raw silk has been greatly increased. The silk factory's psychological expectation of raw material gap has been enlarged, and some abnormal speculation factors have caused dramatic changes in supply and demand relations, resulting in a significant rise in cocoon price.

As the gloom of the international financial crisis has not completely subsided, the European and American markets are still weak, the pressure on the forced appreciation of RMB and the pressure of domestic inflation are increasing.

Because the price of "Silk front road" products is difficult to synchronize in the industrial chain terminal, downstream production and sales links, and can not be made up simultaneously from the profits of enterprises, so the production enterprises have lost money in such a background.

Silk production is difficult due to the superposition of various factors.

Many silk enterprises have chosen to reduce production, close down and pform their jobs, and the other enterprises have chosen to break through in the difficult position and move forward difficultly.

The complexity of the current silk industry contradiction lies in: on the one hand, the cocoon price has a positive meaning to reduce the scissors difference between industry and agriculture, stimulate sericulture and expand production; on the other hand, the export of high priced Silk raw materials and its finished products is difficult, and the domestic demand market is hard to digest.

Someone has counted an account: in the first half year alone, the total amount of silk supplied in various channels is 10 thousand tons of silk compared with the total digestibility of all kinds of silk.

This shows that the situation of supply exceeding demand is developing.

This year, the price of cocoon silk is different from that of previous prices. Cocoon silk prices have broken the basic normal distribution pattern and the short time of peak wave return time. This year's price "wave peak" is developing slowly over time. In the environment of inflation, cotton, wool, and especially chemical fiber prices continue to rise this year. Are these professional commodities strong like some agricultural and sideline products and real estate as a result of bubbles in the speculation of foreign capital? Anyway, we can predict that the oversupply of silk and the rise of silk prices will bring unprecedented trauma to the industry.