In November, CPI Will Reach The Peak Of &Nbsp In The Year.

Economic data for November will be released on Saturday.

Most experts in the industry expect that the CPI increase will be around 4.8% in November, reaching the peak in the year, or down in December.

CPI reached the top in November.

In view of the rising prices of vegetables and other agricultural products, China issued a number of measures to stabilize prices in mid November. At the same time, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of Commerce and the Food Bureau increased the grain, sugar and oil reserves, and regularly put the national policy grain and oil into the market every week. Many initiatives played an important role in stabilizing the prices of vegetables and other agricultural products.

Judging from the current market, vegetable prices, especially green leafy vegetables, have dropped significantly, for example, the prices of Chinese cabbage closely related to people's lives have dropped sharply.

From the futures market,

Nonetheless, the industry has reached a consensus that the CPI growth in November may be higher.

Peng Wensheng, chief economist at CICC, said that CPI could be 4.8% in November.

Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Xingye Bank's capital operation center, agrees.

Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS Securities, said November

Song Yu, Goldman Sachs Asia's China macro economist, believes that although regulatory measures may help to change market inflation expectations to some extent, direct price controls, such as price fixing or requiring companies to record prices, are likely to be ineffective.

For example, in the field of agricultural products, although the autumn harvest is very good this year, the price of grain has been rising recently, which may be influenced by the expectation of high inflation.

CPI is expected to rise in December.

With the gradual emergence of the effect of national regulation and control measures, most experts believe that CPI will be expected to rise and fall in December.

"Before the price surge of agricultural products is mainly speculative speculation factors, after these factors are effectively controlled, prices will definitely fall back."

Yuan Gangming, a researcher at the Institute of economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, predicts that CPI growth will fall to less than 4% in December.

Guotai Junan issued a report that, due to the recent national price control measures and multi pronged approach, vegetable prices fell sharply, it is expected that food prices will rise in December.

Even considering that in December, a month before the Spring Festival, holiday factors will lead to food prices continuing to rise. The CPI increase in December is still a matter of probability.

Although many factors such as the decline of the tail factor have declined, agencies generally believe that the CPI growth rate in December may be down compared with that in November. But judging from the current situation, the inflation pressure next year is undoubtedly increasing.

Peng Wensheng further said that inflation will be high and low next year. On the one hand, it will be related to demand, and on the other hand, it will be related to demand.

This month will raise interest rates by {page_break}

Inflation has become the focus of every ministries and local governments at all levels, and new policies and measures have been introduced.

In December 3rd, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee explicitly pointed out that "to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy" shows that the policy will shift to "tight money and broad finance".

Wang Tao analysis said that this inflation expectation is different from last time. There is no last difficulty in controlling the inflation expectations, and there is no need to stop lending and stop new projects.

"At first, there is no sign of overheating in China's economy," she said. "Next, although the two time was driven by food factors, the price of grain and pork rose sharply last time, and there was no major product in this increase. Finally, the rise in energy prices played an important role in last inflation."

Lu commissar said that for many reasons, it is estimated that the 18 interest rate increase in December 7th is 1 times. There is no suspense. In the way, it may be roughly symmetric interest rate increase.

After the rate hike, unless the open market has a large volume, there will still be a possibility of raising the 0.5% 1% reserve requirement in the year.