Zheng Mian: Short Term Pressure Adjustment &Nbsp, But The Space Is Limited.

At the beginning of November, the United States launched a new round of quantitative easing monetary policy, the US dollar index continued to decline, and China's supply and demand gap factors supported, and ample liquidity continued to enter the cotton market speculation.

Two, influencing factors analysis

(1), from

In November 9th, the US Department of Agriculture released the latest monthly report on global cotton supply and demand, which lowered global consumption and ending inventory in 2010/11 and prevented the total supply from falling.

Due to the revision of the 2009/10 balance sheet in mainland China, the number of initial inventories decreased by 654 thousand tons from the previous month, reflecting the recent shortage of industrial inventories.

The total output of the world has been reduced by 212 thousand tons, because production in mainland China, the United States, Pakistan, Greece and Turkey has increased more than that in Brazil, Australia and Uzbekistan.

Due to insufficient supply, global cotton consumption decreased to 25 million 435 thousand tons, down 3% from the previous month, down from 1.4% in the previous year.

Compared with last month, consumption in mainland China, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States, Vietnam, Brazil and Turkey has all been reduced, partly offset by the increase in cotton consumption in India, which is mainly due to the cotton export restriction policy of India.

The volume of Global trade increased by nearly 170 thousand tons last month, while China's mainland increased by 436 thousand tons, but partly offset by the decrease in imports from other countries.

The end of the world inventory fell 5%, to 9 million 188 thousand tons.

The global inventory consumption ratio in 2009/10 and 2010/11 decreased to 37% and 36% respectively, the lowest since 1993/94.

The report lowered American cotton production and domestic cotton consumption in 2010/11, and increased export volume.

The output is due to the increase in production in Texas larger than that in the southeastern and delta regions, resulting in a reduction of 98 thousand tons, or 4 million 11 thousand tons, from the previous month.

The amount of textile cotton used in the United States has decreased by 33 thousand tons, or 751 thousand tons, due to the recent rise in cotton prices.

Exports increased by 54 thousand tons to 3 million 429 thousand tons due to strong demand abroad and strong contracts.

The final inventory dropped by 109 thousand tons, or only 479 thousand tons, the lowest since 1925.

It is estimated that the upper and lower limits of the annual acceptable price range of producers are increased by 4 cents and 2 cents respectively, to 74-86 cents / pound, and the upper and lower limits have increased by 7 cents respectively.

(two),

In November 18th, the national cotton market monitoring system, which was built by China cotton reserve management corporation, launched a nationwide survey of cotton production in China in 2010. In late October 2010 to early November, it involved 15 cotton planting provinces (autonomous regions) and 87 cotton planting counties (cities and regiments).

The results showed that the cotton quality and yield were all adversely affected by the weather of cotton sowing during this year, which was subjected to continuous heavy rainfall such as low temperature and open season.

The cotton planting area of this year is 75 million 682 thousand mu, 1.1% less than that of last year. The output per unit area is 84 kg / mu, 4.4%, the total output is 6 million 360 thousand tons, and the reduction is 5.5%.

According to the subregion, the cotton growing area of the Yellow River River Basin suffered heavy rainfall in 8 and September. The cotton boll opening and autumn peach growth were affected. The number of mildewy peach, rotten peach and stiff cotton increased, and the quality and yield of seed cotton decreased, and the harvest time was postponed.

The average yield of the cotton area is 70.4 kg / mu, 1.4% lower than the previous year, 29 million 685 thousand mu, 7%, 2 million 91 thousand tons and 8.3%.

Among them, the eastern part of Shandong province and the southern part of Henan province were more seriously affected. The total output of the two provinces was expected to decrease by 9.4% and 14% respectively. The main cotton producing areas in Hebei were limited and the total output increased by 0.4%.

Affected by the continuous rainfall in late September and the cold air intrusion in October, the air humidity and light intensity in some cotton regions of the Yangtze River Basin were increased, and the mildew and rot of cotton bolls increased. The yield and quality of cotton decreased, but in view of the enlargement of cotton planting area over the previous year, the total output increased.

The average yield of the cotton area is 67.4 kg / mu, 3.7% lower than the previous year, 20 million 756 thousand mu, 5.1%, 1 million 399 thousand tons, and 1.2%.

Among them, the two provinces of Hubei and Anhui were obviously affected by adverse weather, the total output decreased by 2.5% and 3.8% respectively, the output per unit area increased by 13.3% in Jiangsu, and the total output increased by 14.6%.

From late March to early April, the cooling weather of strong wind and floating dust had a certain effect on the spring sowing in the northwest inland cotton area. Cold air activities were frequent in 9 and October, and rain and frost weather were not favorable for cotton growth and picking.

The average yield of the cotton area is 114 kg / mu, 7.8% lower than that of last year, 25 million 75 thousand mu, 1.5%, and 2 million 859 thousand tons, down 6.5%.

Among them, Xinjiang's yield per unit area decreased by 7.7% and its total output by 6%.

(three) import and export aspects

According to the data released by China Customs, the import volume of cotton in China was 96 thousand tons in October, a decrease of 105 thousand tons compared with September, a decrease of 52%, a decrease of 19% over the same period last year, and a total of 2 million 250 thousand tons of cotton imported in 2010, representing an increase of 88% over the same period last year.

The total number of imports in the first two months of 2010 was 296 thousand tons, a year-on-year increase of 34.5%.

The average import price rose in October, reaching 2131 US dollars / ton, up 69 compared with September, or 3.3%.

In October, the US dollar exchange rate continued to decline, and the international cotton spot price continued to rush ahead, continuing to record the highest record in history.

The first batch of 935 thousand tons of cotton export registration in India was completed quickly.

In the same month, the import price of cotton in China increased again, and the import volume dropped sharply. Besides the slight increase in cotton imports from Brazil, cotton, Australian cotton and India cotton fell sharply, of which the proportion of American cotton was less than 1/3, but it was still the largest source country.

Imports of Uzbek and Brazil cotton increased rapidly, rising to second and third respectively, and Australia returned to fourth.

In the same month, China imported 28 thousand tons of cotton from the United States, down 86.3% from the previous month, accounting for 29.2% of total imports; from 23 thousand Uzbekistan to 23 thousand tons, an increase of 2 times, accounting for 24%; imports of Brazil cotton 16 thousand tons, an increase of 27% from 16.4% last month, 16.4%; imports of Australian cotton 6530 tons, a decrease from 83% last month, accounting for 83%; imports from India, with a decline of only 19%.

(four) policy regulation pressure

In November 8th, the seven departments of the NDRC and other departments issued urgent notices, requiring the relevant departments of the cotton producing areas to further strengthen the supervision of the market and quality, strengthen the investigation of the leasing of social idle funds or the acquisition of processed cotton, seriously investigate and punish illegal activities that disrupt market order and fail to fulfill the quality obligations, and strictly investigate and deal with the behavior of distributing price information, malicious hoarding, and driving up prices.