Next Year'S Macroeconomic Policy Will Be Set Down Or Inflation Protected.

4%:CPI tolerance upgrades

China's consumer price index (CPI) rose 4.4% in October, hitting a 25 month high. Soaring prices will surely become the theme of the central economic work conference.

Authorities say that the goal of adjusting the CPI index in 2011 has become the consensus of all parties, and this goal will be controlled at around 4%.

In the wake of rising market concerns, the State Council recently issued a series of administrative measures to control inflation, which led many to equate the current situation with the 2007-2008 years.

Expo financial researcher Wang Xiaobing pointed out that although the current CPI increase is equivalent to that of 2007, it was at the peak of the economic cycle in 2007, and now it is the starting point of the current economic cycle, which means that CPI will continue to rise next year.

Wang Jian, Secretary General of the Chinese society of macroeconomics, said that the fact that the Chinese population is too few is a long-term trend in China. And the input inflationary pressure after the US QE2 will also be fully reflected next year.

Zhang Xinfa, macro research director of galaxy securities, said: "if we say that the main reason for this year's price increase is food prices, there will be a lot of strength next year, so the CPI increase is more difficult than this year."

7 trillion: the drop in credit is not large.

Liquidity management must play a key role in controlling inflation expectations. Authorities say new credit will be close to 7 trillion next year, down from the 7 trillion and 500 billion target this year.

On the 15 day, Zhang Jianhua, director of the central bank's Research Bureau, said publicly that "at the next stage, China should return to prudent monetary policy as soon as possible according to the requirements of the development of the situation."

Wang Xiaobing said that after the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the supply of money has increased dramatically in order to stimulate economic growth. "The reason why inflation did not happen at that time was because the circulation of money was slower, but the velocity of money circulation did not stay at the present low level for a long time, especially in the context of the current inflation expectation. In this case, it is reasonable to reduce the growth rate of the total volume of money. {page_break}

Nevertheless, this goal is still significantly higher than market expectations. Prior to this, Credit Suisse predicted that in 2011, China's new loan quota would be 60 thousand to 6 trillion and 500 billion yuan; the US research company Stanford Burns expected to be less than 6 trillion and 600 billion yuan. There is also extreme pessimism that the continuity and stability of macro policies are difficult to sustain.

In this regard, Zhang Xin law said that after the financial crisis, the government approved a large number of investment projects, low-cost housing construction also needs a lot of money, 6.5-7 million quota fully consider the follow-up construction needs of the above projects, will provide a guarantee for the steady growth of the macro-economy.

8%: the economy is still growing.

In 1990s, China's economy was gradually transformed into an export oriented one. At present, the recovery of the world economy is still uncertain. The US economy is stagnant, and Europe continues to run out of debt crisis. How long is China's economic growth capable of "thriving" is still a question mark. Authoritative sources said that China's economic growth target in 2010 was still "eight guaranteed".

Wang Xiaobing said, "this shows that the foundation of China's economy is no problem, and external risks will not be further enlarged next year."

Experts believe that although the financial and credit crunch brought by the European debt crisis may affect the recovery process in some countries, the economic differentiation in Europe is obvious. The strong recovery in emerging markets and the continued economic recovery in developed countries such as France and Germany will support China's rapid growth in exports to Europe.

At the same time, high government investment will also provide protection for economic growth. Authoritative sources said, "positive fiscal policy will also become the keynote of macroeconomic regulation and control next year."

Zhang Xinfa believes that the growth rate of 8% means that China's economy will also maintain steady and rapid growth, providing protection for China's "structural adjustment and transformation".

According to the insiders, under the background of steady and rapid growth of macro-economy, we should focus on structural investment opportunities next year. We can expect that thematic investments such as emerging industries and regional revitalization will still maintain a certain degree of heat.