China'S Textile Economic Price Chain: Strong? Fragility?

According to the Bureau's macro data, China's CPI hit a new high in 23 months in September, exceeding 3% warning lines for many months, and domestic inflation pressure has been rising significantly.

The price trend from the commodity market can be verified. This year, from "garlic you ruthless", "beans you play" and "Jiang You Jun", to the current "sugar high" and "Ping what"... The price of agricultural and sideline products has been "full flowering" trend.

As one of the agricultural products, the price of cotton has been rising steadily, and it has brought about the rising price of the rear products and the substitute products of the textile industry chain in China. When will the pressure on the raw material terminal continue to ease? Can the sub industries and even the distribution channels absorb the upstream cost effectively? Especially after the end of the current cotton boom, how will the enterprises adjust and digest the raw materials purchased at high prices? Stock All of them constitute a close concern for the development of the industry.

Although the price transmission at the front of the industry chain is very smooth, but again to the industrial chain. Middle end And terminal extension, conduction is weak. According to the statistics of National Bureau of statistics, in 2010 1~9, the apparel price index (PPI) of our clothing products increased by only 1.8%, and the consumer price index (CPI) of clothing products decreased by 1.1%. According to information from the market, the price of home textiles and clothing products this year is far higher than that of the front end products. For example, some domestic textile brands have increased their retail prices by about 20% since April. Under the pressure of too much cost, many enterprises have begun to use polyester cotton instead of pure cotton.

And clothing products from the fourth quarter of this year will see the order, brand enterprises generally rise 10 to 15%. Although the terminal products are affected by many factors such as chain transmission links, the sensitivity to raw material cost is relatively low, and the cost absorptive capacity is strong. But facing the endless flow of raw materials, the price rise will also become a reality that has to be faced. Some experts say that the terminal products are raw materials in the first two months before digestion. According to this deduction, prices will rise more in two months.

Although from now on, the domestic and foreign sales situation improves, the terminal demand signal will be uploaded. But terminal consumption The affordability cannot be magnified by the increase of market demand. Once consumers do not pay the price, that is, the collapse of consumer bearing capacity, the bottom-up demand will be weakened. At that time, the production links and circulation channels on the industrial chain will jointly pay for the poor price transmission.

Supported by a combination of favorable factors, China's textile industry handed in outstanding transcripts in the first three quarters of 2010, continuing the recovery trend after the two quarter of 2009. However, we should also see that in the face of this year's cost increase, the pressure capacity and price transmission capacity of different links in the industrial chain are different, so the profit situation of different sub sectors is different. This will further match the supply capability and demand capability of the future industry, and put forward a new proposition of balancing convergence.