October Foreign Trade Data Released Today &Nbsp; &Nbsp; Import Will Rebound.

The Seoul summit of the group of 20 and the APEC Yokohama summit are approaching. The trade figures between China and the United States in October will add some background to the discussion on Global trade balance at the summit.

"The US foreign trade figures for October are expected to be basically the same as last month, but the deficit will be slightly better."

"But a slight improvement in a single month will not reduce its domestic accusation against the RMB exchange rate and China's trade policy," a person studying the US stock market said in the first financial daily.

He believes that the RMB exchange rate and the US quantitative easing monetary policy will become the central topic of the two summit.

For today's announcement

As for foreign trade prospects for the next 3 months or even half a year, the recently concluded Canton Fair seems to indicate that China's exports are not optimistic.

Export or slowing import big rebound

In September, the index of new export orders in China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 56.3%, which continued to maintain a high level. This seemed to mean that external demand remained basically stable from a fundamental perspective.

Hongyuan securities's macroeconomic forecast shows that the recovery of major economies will slow down China's exports in October.

Considering the strong competitiveness of China's exports, the above effects are basically controllable, but export growth will still fall slightly.

The growth rate of imports will rebound by 4.5 percentage points from the previous month, due to the low base year and the recent surge in international commodity prices.

Gao Hua Securities estimates that the export growth in October will fall to 23% from 25.1% in September.

Societe Generale Bank senior economist Lu commissar told reporters that the export growth in October will fall into the 17.3%~21.3% interval, the median value of 19.3%, a sharp drop of 5.8 percentage points from last month.

The total demand for China's export container pport market has slowed down with the end of the Christmas rush season, Lu commissar said.

In the first ten days of October, the price of main routes dropped.

In mid October, the overall demand for China's export container pport market rebounded, and the freight volume of the main trunk routes was significantly higher than before.

Because the Baltic comprehensive freight index (BDI) did not continue to decline in the middle and late 9 months, it rebounded all the way. As of October 22nd, it rose by 11.2% compared with the end of September. Lu commissar believes that China's imports may rise in October. The increase will fall to 38%~42%'s range, with a median value of 40%, a 15.9 percentage point increase from last month.

The Canton Fair indicates that future exports are not optimistic.

On the 4 day, the 108th Canton Fair closed.

As a barometer of China's foreign trade, the data of Autumn Fair in the second half of the year are generally considered to outline roughly the four quarter and the first quarter of next year's exports.

Wang Hui, senior analyst at Haitong Securities macro securities, told our reporter that there were 200 thousand overseas purchasers attending the Canton Fair, a decrease of 2.3% compared with the previous session. This data coincides with the cycle of China and the international economy, showing the slowdown of global economic growth in the second half of the year and its impact on international trade.

He said that the cost pressure of RMB appreciation and inflation will continue to be a major problem facing export enterprises next year. In addition, China's economic pformation will inevitably lead to the pformation of export product structure, and the pressure of this pformation will gradually emerge from next year.

On the whole, China's exports are not optimistic.

Although the specific paction volume of the Canton Fair has not yet been announced, Liu Jianjun, deputy secretary general and spokesman of the Canton Fair, said that the turnover of this Canton Fair was slightly higher than that of the previous session, but it has not yet been restored to the level before the financial crisis in 2008.

The highest level of turnover in the Canton Fair was in April 2008, at $38 billion, compared with $34 billion 300 million in the previous session.

Accordingly, Wang Hui expects that the turnover of the Canton Fair will be 35 billion ~360 billion.