Zhou Xiaochuan Or The Stock Market To Build Hot Money &Nbsp; Guard Against Quantitative Easing Side Effects.

On the eve of the G20 summit in Seoul, the United States launched the second round of the twenty summit.

Governor of central bank

Zhou Xiaochuan said recently that

Once the concept of "pool" was put forward, it immediately led to extensive discussion.

There is a view that relative to the real estate and agricultural products market, the "hot money" circle in the stock market "safety factor" is higher.

It allows hot money to stay in Hongkong and enter the A share market. The central bank uses monetary policy and other means to absorb hedge or strengthen supervision.

People in the banking sector believe that "pool" or a financial derivative product is a hedge against short-term speculative capital.

Where is the building pool?

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve announced a new round of quantitative easing.

Quantitative easing policy will lead to the depreciation of the US dollar. Therefore, the trend of cross-border capital inflow into emerging markets, including China, is more obvious.

The United States began forcing Japanese yen appreciation since 1980. After the signing of the Plaza Accord in 1985, the yen traded from about 1 dollars to about 240 yen, and it appreciated all the way to 1 yen at the beginning of 1989 to more than 80 yen.

Thanks to the rise and fall of a large amount of US dollar capital flows into Japan, the result is that between 1987 and 1989, Japanese housing prices and stock prices soared, causing huge asset bubbles.

However, since 1990, the Japanese asset bubble began to burst due to the massive withdrawal of US dollar capital.

At present, the world is worried that the world economy seems to be one step closer to the currency war.

Zhou Xiaochuan's statement shows that China's pledge to guarantee the real economy is not determined by "disturbing".

Some people in the industry used the exclusion method to consider how to build the pond.

In the "two regulation" in depth, the real estate market is difficult to choose.

And the rise in prices of many farm products has again touched the expected nerve of CPI.

In a media interview, Shen Minggao, chief economist of China's Citigroup and chief China economist, said in a media interview that the pool of "hot money" might be a set of measures: let hot money stay in Hongkong, enter the A share market, the central bank uses monetary policy and other means to absorb hedge, or strengthen supervision.

Shen Minggao's argument actually represents the industry's view of the direction of the capital market.

Both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose more than 1% last Friday.

The Shanghai Composite Index stands at 3100 points.

The Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities traded 275 billion 400 million yuan and 186 billion yuan respectively, the total amount was more than 460 billion yuan, which was significantly enlarged compared with the previous trading day.

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On the afternoon of the afternoon, the stock companies expressed their views on Zhou Xiaochuan's position, and think that the stock pool is a good place to attract hot money.

However, China does not want to pay for fake bubbles.

There are different opinions on whether the stock market can play the role of rein in hot money.

Shi Chenyu, deputy director of the investment banking department of ICBC, told the first Financial Daily reporters that the "pool" should be an investment product that can hedge short-term speculative capital.

"After China increases interest rates, the scale of arbitrage capital inflows will be even larger. I guess this kind of investment is more likely to be an interest rate or exchange rate derivative product."

In an interview with CCTV, Gao Zhikai, a financial expert, said that when allowing external funds to flow into private equity funds, they could set up a so-called "pool" to determine whether they were earmarked for special purposes, the amount of inflow and the time and mode of final exit, as well as the way of payment.

Prevent the side effects of quantitative easing

No matter how the pool will be realized, the concept still releases a clear signal: the side effects of the new round of quantitative easing can not be ignored, and all countries need to consider adopting appropriate policies and measures to mitigate the impact.

"The US dollar is an international currency and a reserve currency. It has not only the purpose of reserve, but also a large number of commodities trading in the world, which uses US dollars, investments and pactions in the financial market.

So the problem is that a policy may be a right choice for the United States, but it is not necessarily a global choice, it may have other side effects. "

Zhou Xiaochuan thinks.

The flood of liquidity is coming again. On the one hand, it is the pressure of RMB appreciation. On the one hand, it is the pressure of rising prices, and the choice of China's monetary policy is facing challenges.

CPI rose 3.6% in September compared to the same period last year.

The data, which hit a 23 month high, imply that even after the central bank announced the increase in interest rates, the CPI growth rate is still higher than the 2.50% one-year deposit rate and the 3.25% 2 year deposit rate.

Zhang Jianhua, director of the people's Bank of China Research Bureau, recently pointed out that long-term negative interest rates should not be allowed to erode residents' savings assets.

When quantitative easing in the United States will lead to foreign capital inflows, he believes that the central bank should strengthen liquidity management and guide the moderate growth of credit.

The people's Bank of China recently issued the three quarter monetary policy implementation report, and continued to guide monetary conditions to gradually return to normal level.

Compared with recent reports, this is the first time that the central bank has made "monetary conditions gradually return to normal level".

Analysts believe that behind this statement reflects the central bank's policy more focused on the management of inflation and liquidity pressure.

Many institutions, including the world bank, have suggested that China increase interest rates again. Wang Qing, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Greater China, pointed out that emerging market countries should carry out a more robust and tighter policy, but the flood of liquidity will result in many restrictions on policy adjustment and new financial risks.