Cotton Price Hit 30 Thousand Points &Nbsp, Will It Be High?

　　 "The height is not cold", has climbed to 30000 yuan pass cotton price, the callback will be far away?

　　 November 3rd Zheng cotton In recent months, the price of the contract has exceeded 30 thousand yuan mark. In just three months, cotton prices have reached a record high and doubled. Due to the failure of new cotton listing to suppress cotton prices, the phenomenon of panic buying and stockpiling is serious. The rise of cotton prices has led to the imbalance of the market industry chain, the pressure of policy regulation and control is heavier, and the market risk has increased. Although the upward trend of cotton has not been reversed, the risks of market callbacks and even diving are accumulating.

Changes in supply and demand to stimulate cotton bull market

The global cotton planting area has been reduced for 5 consecutive years, and its output has decreased for 3 consecutive years. This rise is the stimulation of the contradiction between supply and demand of cotton production for many years. In this case, even though the current new cotton listing fails to suppress cotton prices, it is a frequent record of record highs.

The US Department of agriculture's supply and demand data in October showed that the world's cotton production increased by 3 million 300 thousand tons, an increase of 15%, but consumption increased and consumed inventory, resulting in a decline in global cotton stocks. The United States was the largest exporter of cotton, and the US cotton 2010/2011 had a stock of 590 thousand tons at the end of the year. Inventory consumption The ratio is 14%, the lowest in 14 years.

Meanwhile, in 2009, China's cotton output was 6 million 960 thousand tons, which was reduced by 1 million 20 thousand tons. In 2010, China's cotton output was 6 million 850 thousand tons, and its output continued to decline by 100 thousand tons. In 2010, China's cotton output decreased for two consecutive years. In 3-5, cotton planting period in China was postponed due to the sowing date at low temperature. The low temperature and rainfall in 6-8 months affected the growth and development of cotton, resulting in a decline in yield per unit area, resulting in the supply of cotton market. Against this background, new cotton came into the market in September, but was delayed by the supply and demand gap, the new cotton market was postponed, and the price of agricultural products (23.15,0.10,0.43%) rose. marketing hype As a result of many factors, cotton spot prices are rising sharply, and the new cotton market has been in a rush to buy and sell.

In addition, the India textile minister said that the India government was unwilling to approve more exports and would first assess whether the domestic factories had enough supply. India will reassess the export quota of cotton in December and intensify the international market supply worries. By October 29th, India had approved the export of about 750 thousand tons of cotton, after India announced the largest export volume of 935 thousand tons this year.

Increase in seed cotton purchase cost

With the rising price of seed cotton, the purchasing and processing costs of enterprises are also increasing rapidly. The purchase price of seed cotton has gone beyond the historical record. In some areas, the price of seed cotton has risen to 6 yuan / Jin, the purchase price is too high, the business risk is expanded, the market pressure is too high, and the sale of cotton seeds is not smooth. At present, about 15% of the acquisition enterprises have suspended seed cotton purchase.

Cotton prices continue to uplink, promote cotton yarn prices generally rising, textile enterprises quote actively follow up, the current high C32S market mainstream 38000-39000 yuan / ton, and quality better pick three silk high C32S market price 39500-40000 yuan / ton majority, downstream cautiously purchase, market price pressure needs to be further digested.

Textile enterprises are facing challenges

Although the textile situation improved and profits increased this year, as cotton prices continued to rise sharply, the affordability of textile enterprises gradually weakened. Because of the uncertainty of production cost, cotton spinning enterprises dare not sign long orders, and some enterprises begin to limit production time and reduce cotton consumption.

Recently, the reserve cotton has already completed the dumping of 600 thousand tons. In order to meet the needs of textile enterprises, the departments concerned decided to increase the dumping capacity of 400 thousand tons, and throw the store and fail to suppress cotton prices. The national development and Reform Commission and the China Cotton Association have held a meeting to suppress the vicious speculation in the market. The relevant departments are expected to continue to introduce some policies after the market.

Guard against inverted V shape inversion of cotton price

In retrospect, when the US cotton broke through the 80-90 cent / pound area, the inverted V shape reversal usually occurred, resulting in a sharp decline in the market. At present, the United States cotton has risen nearly 140 cents historical highs, even if the short-term continued high, but in the next year in the cotton planting area increased substantially, the price will inevitably callback.

In addition, after a comparative analysis of US cotton inventory consumption and historical price, we can find that if the inventory consumption ratio rises, the price will drop; if the inventory consumption ratio falls, the price will often rise. Moreover, the US inventory consumption data tend to recover from the bottom, usually less than two years.

　　 From the operational point of view, the current trend of rising cotton prices is obvious. It is the best choice to go homeward and light the warehouse. Investors must be concerned about changes in global cotton inventories and consumption. Policies, new cotton planting areas and output in the coming year will determine the trend of cotton prices.