RMB Will Continue To Face "High Pressure".

After three months, the US International C policy report two times a year is expected to play again on Friday.

The US Treasury's second international exchange rate policy report this year is likely to be released on Friday.

At the moment when the Sino US exchange rate friction is heating up, the outside world is concerned about the wording of this report for China, especially whether China will be listed as the so-called "currency manipulator".

At present, the experts are still divided about the final statement of the report. Some people tend to think that Obama may avoid labeling China with manipulation, or even postpone the release again.

However, from the recent US government's stronger stance on the issue of RMB exchange rate, the US side is likely to be in the

Delayed release or

According to the relevant regulations, the US Treasury must submit a report on international economic and exchange rate policies to the Congress every 6 months, which is known as the international economic and exchange rate policy report, also known as the international exchange rate policy report.

The countries identified as "manipulating exchange rates" in the report may eventually be subject to trade sanctions by the United States.

According to the relevant trade laws of the United States, if a country is identified as "

Since joining the WTO in 2001, China has never been listed as a "currency manipulator" by the United States.

However, this year, as the United States entered the mid-term election year, coupled with the weak domestic economic recovery, the US Congress and the government began to make more articles on the issue of RMB exchange rate, trying to shift public attention from the deep-rooted economic problems of the United States and win political votes.

In recent reports, the US Treasury has repeatedly criticized China's exchange rate policy, accusing the yuan of being undervalued.

However, taking into account the importance of Sino US economic and trade relations, the US government is also very cautious about labeling China with "currency manipulation".

Originally this year's first exchange rate report will be released in April 15th this year, but the US Treasury temporarily decided to postpone it until early July.

Many Chinese experts believe that the US Treasury has reported that the probability of China as a "exchange rate manipulation" is rising from the recent tougher statement by the US side.

Geithner, US Treasury Secretary, said on Tuesday that the United States hopes the renminbi will ensure a gradual, but "significant" pace of appreciation.

The latest reports from the mainstream media in the United States say that the report is likely to be released on time in October 15th, but a spokesman for the Ministry of finance did not confirm it.

Borges Staw Dze, director of the Pedersen Institute for international economics, a think-tank in Washington, believes that considering all factors, postponing the issuance of the exchange rate report may be the best choice for the Obama administration. The timing may be postponed to the mid-term elections, which will reduce the political pressure from the national assembly.

American key officials emphasize cooperation

Ickenson, a trade policy expert at the Cato Institute, another well-known think-tank in Washington, pointed out that Obama may again avoid labeling China with currency manipulation. Otherwise, it may give the Congress an honest message, which will eventually make retaliatory Renminbi legislation into law, which Obama did not want to see.

Cao Honghui, director of the financial market office of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that once the report is released on Friday, it is more likely that the US will label China as a "currency manipulator". Of course, it is more advisable to postpone the announcement to the mid-term elections.

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Analysts also pointed out that whether or not to postpone or accuse China of "manipulating the exchange rate", the report is likely to continue to "pressurize" the renminbi and continue to include phrases such as "a substantial undervaluation of the renminbi".

The US House of Representatives passed the exchange rate reform and fair trade act in September 29th, aiming to impose special tariffs on the so-called "undervalued exchange rate" countries.

The bill may open the door for us related industries or enterprises to put countervailing action against China's US products on the basis of the so-called "RMB undervaluation".

Next, the motion may vote in the middle of November in the Senate. If the two parties pass the majority, then the bill will become a law and Obama will not be able to exercise his veto.

If so, the normal development of trade relations between China and the United States may face major challenges.

Many policymakers in the US also have a clear understanding of this. A heavyweight member called on the 13 day that China and the United States should strengthen cooperation on exchange rate issues.

Baucus, chairman of the US Senate Finance Committee, said in Beijing on 13 July that the US China relationship is the most important bilateral relationship in the world today. The two sides should further strengthen cooperation in various fields such as trade and economic cooperation, and strengthen communication and coordination.

Baucus said his trip to China was aimed at finding solutions to bilateral issues such as exchange rates.

He stressed that the two countries should make joint efforts on exchange rate issues, and that China and the United States need to cooperate to find a mutually beneficial solution to the dispute.

Roach rebuked the theory of exchange rate origin

In response to questions from foreign media, a spokesman for China's Ministry of foreign affairs also stressed on Thursday that the appreciation of the renminbi can not solve the trade deficit of the United States, nor solve the imbalance of the world economy.

In a public speech this week, Liu Xiaoming, China's ambassador to Britain, pointed out that the imbalance of the world economy is not caused by the exchange rate issue. The blame for the imbalance of the world economy on the RMB exchange rate is to shirk its responsibilities and shirk its own problems and responsibilities.

He said that the main reason for the global economic imbalance is the imbalance between consumption and savings in some major economies, excessive consumption and insufficient savings.

Similar views have also been supported by some authoritative experts.

Morgan Stanley Asia Chairman Roach recently accepted the Shanghai Securities News reporter's interview, pointing out that trying to solve the Sino US trade imbalance through the appreciation of the renminbi is not good for both countries. It can neither help reduce the trade deficit in the United States nor help China reduce exports and stimulate imports.

Roach believes that solving the Sino US trade imbalance is not a matter for either side, and both sides should take the responsibility.

He expressed the belief that China has political will and has the ability to achieve greater results in accelerating the adjustment of the domestic economic structure. In contrast, the United States has not taken any measures to solve the budget deficit problem, nor has there been effective measures to stimulate domestic savings, which is obviously due to the lack of sufficient political will of the government.

Roach gave a strong refutation to some similar remarks made by the US side that "the RMB is undervalued by more than 20%".

He said that a few years ago, a number of US Congressmen called the renminbi undervalued by 20%. Over the past few years, the renminbi has appreciated by more than 20% against the US dollar, and that group of members is clamoring that the renminbi is undervalued by at least 20%. This is ridiculous.

As for the future trend of the renminbi, Wolfensohn, former world bank president, said this week that the renminbi will appreciate gradually.

A report by UBS, an investment bank, predicts that the renminbi will not suddenly rise sharply. It is expected that the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar in the next two years will be about 4% and 5% respectively.