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Cotton Price Increases Boost PTA Futures Shocks

2010/10/6 22:59:00 55

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Due to tight global supply and climate factors,

Cotton price

After entering September, the new round began to rise, which rose more rapidly than those of the two waves in March and June, and generally rose to three figures.

At present, both China and India are affected by rainfall, and the new cotton market will be delayed.

Last week, the rainfall in India increased by 19% over the same period last year, an increase of 26% over the previous week. The rainfall in the central region was lower than that in the previous week. Since September, rainfall in India has increased by 22% over the same period in previous years.

In China, most cotton producing areas have been affected by continuous rain and frost since September.

Due to weather factors, cotton traders have higher expectations for cotton prices in the future market, and they are reluctant to sell seriously.

In addition, India's restrictions on cotton exports have also increased the weight of cotton speculation.

Cotton prices are soaring, and cotton fiber products are benefiting from it, but in varying degrees:

Polyester staple: as a substitute for cotton, after September, especially after mid September,

Psf

The East China market has seen an astonishing rise, not only rising to 100-200 yuan per ton, but also showing a continuous upward trend.

In the past year and a half, polyester staple market has always been in a weak state, especially compared with the hot products such as polyester filament.

However, although the price difference between cotton and cotton has been reduced, the price is still 1.7 times larger.

In addition, there are still several factors contributing to inflation: 1, tight supply.

Unlike the frequent expansion of filament yarns, polyester and short have not yet heard of the new expansion in recent years. Due to the loss in the first half of the year and the demand for energy conservation and emission reduction, some factories have lost their production volume, resulting in less supply at present.

2, national day stock raising needs.

Although Jiangsu and Zhejiang rigidly controlled power restriction in August, but the National Day was close to the national day, the power factor was downplayed and rigid demand springing up.

3, polyester raw materials before sprint.

To a certain extent, the PTA spot market is characterized by strong financial attributes, while PTA futures currently have a general topic of their own, but they benefit from the upward trend of agricultural products.

Polyester staple before and after National Day

Quotation

There is still room for upward demand.

But for the well stocked downstream, the strength of the disk will certainly be weaker than before. Therefore, the cornerstone is not very stable, and other alternative products will also catch up with the market after the cotton boom. From this point of view, the staple fiber is indeed eye-catching, but its supporting force is still open to question.

Acrylic fiber: cotton spinning yarn (nitrile cotton) had a relatively quiet demand for wool spinning yarn (nitrile wool) with relatively good demand, and poor demand for raw 1.5D acrylic fiber.

Entering the September, the domestic market started, the demand for cotton yarn was strong, and the price of cotton yarn was strong under the soaring cotton price.

As another substitute for cotton, the price of acrylic staple, which is one of the main raw materials of cotton spinning yarn, has a two wave reduction in 7 and August. With the cotton price rising all the way, the price difference between them gradually narrowed to 9 yuan at the end of the month, only about 1500 yuan / ton.

The profit of the cotton mill is high. If the supply of cotton is short and the acrylic fiber is relatively abundant, the purchasing intention of acrylic fiber will be enhanced. The possibility of increasing the amount of acrylic fiber in the blending ratio is possible.

In September, the sale of cotton acrylic staple was better. At the end of the month, some manufacturers made a slight increase in their settlement price, with a range of 100-150 yuan / ton.

After breaking through the 20000 yuan / ton mark, cotton prices are even closer to the price of acrylic staple fibers. Under such circumstances, the demand for acrylic staple in downstream factories will be further enhanced.