What Do You Buy After The Holiday? Strength Broker Pushes The 6 Industries.

This year, the central government decided to further improve its encouragement.

Retail industry: boom is still growing steadily.

Since the beginning of this year, the retail industry has been better than the market, showing better defensive characteristics.

In terms of the rise and fall, the arithmetic average of the retail sector has risen by 12%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has dropped 12.11% in the same period, and the Shanghai Composite Index has risen 0.21%.

Compared with other industries, the performance of the commercial sector is relatively good.

Fourth quarter is still in the prosperity channel.

The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for industries. We believe that the industry will still be in a good turn.

Social consumption capacity showed a steady growth trend, the overall trend of the data has not changed, and the nominal growth level is expected to be around 19% in the whole year.

The sales target of 1000 commercial enterprises with a high degree of market fit has maintained a good growth with the number of major retail enterprises.

Consumer and industry entrepreneurs' confidence index and residents' income have generally been restored in the near future.

Mid term results of retail businesses remain

The valuation of the retail sector is still attractive, but the premium rate has no advantage.

at present

Policy or help industry continue to improve.

This year, the central government decided to further improve the policies and measures to encourage consumption, further intensify its efforts, and continue to form a strong support for the fast growth of the consumer goods market. The policy of encouraging consumption of household appliances and automobiles will continue to play an important role in promoting the growth of consumer goods at the end of the year.

The growth and development of enterprises in various regions have begun to enter a substantive stage.

The development of China's retail industry is a long-term process.

At the present stage of consumption upgrading, it is necessary to pay attention to the status quo and future development trend of the industry itself.

Overall, the current industry development presents the following notable characteristics: the company's format shows a diversified development trend, the new segmentation market implies growth space, the downward trend of consumption appears, regional differences drive the development of the industry, enterprises return to self run, and the pace of enterprise expansion accelerates further. Ownership of their own property has become an important standard, and international commercial capital has gradually been pressurized.

In terms of strategy, the investment mentality of "stable performance + growth potential + story theme anticipation" remains unchanged.

We divide the main line of investment in the retail industry into three categories: the real performance of enterprises, the potential for future growth and the concept of story.

At the same time, combined with the development characteristics of the industry in the fourth quarter and our judgement on the annual performance of the industry, we maintain the investment rating before the industry is stronger than the general trend.

We believe that in the future, the driving force of consumption growth, including the retail industry, will mainly come from a series of factors, such as the advancement of urbanization, the migration of industries to the central and western regions, and the reform of income distribution mechanism.

Against this background, Xinhua, general merchandise, friendship shares, Wangfujing, A, Chengdu group, Youya shares, ZTE commerce, Guangzhou friendship, Suning Appliance and other listed companies deserve our attention.

Textile and clothing: support for excellent enterprises in the peak season of consumption

Industry profits picked up significantly, and profitability in the medium term increased significantly.

In the first 8 months of this year, the main factors of improving the industry's favorable industry efficiency have not changed. The total revenue and profit have increased rapidly. The total operating income and profit of the textile industry increased by 26.83% and 53.6% respectively. The apparel industry increased by 22.35% and 30.92% respectively over the same period.

Benefiting from the domestic economic recovery, the overall profitability of the textile and garment industry in the mid term has increased significantly. The 27 Sample Firms's operating income and net profit have increased by 36.88% and 27.84% respectively, and the gross profit margin has increased by 3.53 percentage points on average.

Among them, the net profit of brand retail industry in China's textile industry increased by 45% over the same period last year, and the net profit of the textile industry in the manufacturing industry increased by 66% year-on-year.

Export growth will slow down, and manufacturing enterprises can hardly be optimistic.

At present, faced with unfavorable factors such as slowing export growth, pressure on RMB appreciation, rising raw material prices and rising labor costs, it is expected that the profit margins and profit growth rate of manufacturing enterprises in the fourth quarter will decline and overall investment opportunities will be smaller to maintain the "holding" rating of the sub sector.

A few superior manufacturing enterprises with scale and brand effect have a certain cost pfer ability.

We suggest that we pay attention to the outstanding enterprises with the market development, the higher growth and the advantages of the valuations, including the jointstock, the huffu color textile and the joint stock.

The trend of domestic retail growth is clear, and enterprises with brand and channel advantages will continue to maintain high growth.

In the first 8 months of this year, the total retail sales of domestic consumer goods increased by 18.2% over the same period last year, with the total retail sales of textiles and clothing above the quota increasing by 23.7% over the same period last year.

With mild inflation showing and domestic residents' income level, purchasing power and consumption will continue to improve, it is expected that the total retail sales of clothing will continue to maintain a high growth rate of about 20%.

At present, most textile and garment retail enterprises in China are in the joint strengthening stage of channels and brands. Brands enhance the ability of channel negotiation, expand channels and increase market share and brand awareness. We believe that enterprises with brand and channel advantages will continue to maintain high growth.

Investment advice and risk warning:

The fourth quarter is the peak season for textile and clothing consumption. The four quarter retail sales growth is expected to reach 25%.

The sub industry recommends paying attention to home textiles, brand clothing, outdoor products and women's shoes. It is recommended to pay attention to companies with basic support, profitability and income elasticity. It is recommended to pay attention to Luo Lai home textiles, fuanna, seven wolves, wedding birds, Meng Jie home textiles, American Apparel, Pathfinder and Saturday.

The main risk is domestic economic slowdown, raw material prices skyrocketing and plummeting, and RMB appreciation brings exchange rate risk.

Aerospace Industry: five main lines should focus on deepening the integration of assets.

This report describes the main line of investment in the five major industries of the aerospace industry board, and lists the related investment targets in detail. It points out that asset securitization of defense industry is an inevitable requirement for the reform of national defense industry.

Maintain the recommended rating for the industry.

The main line of investment in the five major industries needs attention: China's economy is facing many difficulties, and the implementation of economic pformation is the only way out. Transformation means both structural adjustment and industrial technology upgrading.

The defense industry has always been the pioneer of new technology and industrial upgrading.

The Chinese government has initiated new technological breakthroughs and industrial upgrading in the field of aerospace and defense, through the implementation of major national projects and the development of key technical and key equipment.

According to the industrial development policy and direction of the next 10 years, we have combed the Beidou navigation system, the large aircraft project, the aero engine, the general aviation and the low altitude airspace liberalization, and the aircraft carrier's five industry investment main lines.

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Asset securitization of defense industry will continue to deepen: Securitization of military assets is an integral part of the reform of China's defense industry.

Through asset securitization, we can help military enterprises to have their own hematopoietic function and achieve the ultimate goal of improving enterprise efficiency, technology level and comprehensive competitiveness.

Therefore, the trend of securitisation of military assets will not change, and will become more and more deepened.

The asset securitization rate of aviation industry is around 35%, the proportion of ordnance industry group is about 20%, and the proportion of aerospace technology and aerospace industry group is about 10-13%.

The integration space of military industry group's subsequent assets is very broad.

The 4 quarter investment strategy: focus on monopolistic, high growth or assets integration themes.

In the 4 quarter, when the stocks were suspended from the reorganization of assets, L-15 was successfully tested, and before the Zhuhai air show, it was time to pay attention to the military stocks. The "12th Five-Year plan" was also a good catalyst for the market.

As the military sector is facing a certain high valuation pressure, the 4 quarter investment in the military sector need to pay close attention to the direction of the market.

Considering the rich growth background of industry growth prospects and asset injection, we maintain the "recommended" investment rating of the industry.

Brief content: this year, the central government decided to further improve the policies and measures to encourage consumption, further intensify its efforts, and continue to form a strong support for the fast growth of the consumer goods market. The policy of encouraging consumption of household appliances and automobiles will continue to play an important role in promoting the growth of consumer goods at the end of the year.

Company selection: leading industry, we recommend China satellite, aviation power and ST Changhe. They have good prospects for development as the leading companies in small satellites and Beidou navigation systems, aero engines and avionics.

The interim strategy report is concerned about the suspension of the CIC heavy duty aircraft and the China Aviation Precision machine.

New assets are injected into the subject matter and we choose Galaxy power.

Nonferrous Metals: gold stocks are still shining, but tin and molybdenum are good.

Based on the rising global inflation expectations, the fourth quarter of non-ferrous metals is still operating at a high level.

This report focuses on the analysis of the sector investment opportunities expected under the strong industrial policy, focusing on the trend investment opportunities of tin, molybdenum and gold.

Global inflation is the main stimulus for the four quarter of non-ferrous metals prices: the UK CPI increased by 3.1% over the same period in August. In Asia, India raised its interest rate by 25 basis points in mid September, the third increase since July. Global inflation has gradually supported non-ferrous metals in the fourth quarter.

The US dollar is hard to strengthen, supporting the price of non-ferrous metals: due to the sharp rise in the US trade deficit, the US government is expected to avoid a stronger US dollar in order to expand exports.

Secondly, the deterioration of the economic recovery prospects and the loose monetary policy make the US dollar difficult to have strong conditions. Therefore, we believe that the US dollar will remain weak and thus have strong support for commodity prices.

The tin industry policy is further than molybdenum: the tin industry is a step further than the molybdenum policy. From the industry access rules to the rules of protective mining, the tin resources protection and rational mining have been further standardized.

Meanwhile, the level of shipments in the semiconductor industry continues to rise, and the electronics industry is still in the high cycle of prosperity.

On the other hand, Indonesia is subject to environmental protection, weather and government control, the output is limited, exports decline, and the global tin consumption is in the inventory stage.

The strong policy of molybdenum industry is expected to bring a trend of investment opportunities: we expect that the next policy direction of molybdenum industry should aim to increase the protective mining and resource integration measures.

On the one hand, the by-product molybdenum is restrained by the grade of copper molybdenum associated ore. The primary ore plays a major role in the global molybdenum supply, and the molybdenum price lows the molybdenum production.

On the other hand, China has become a new engine of global molybdenum consumption, and the global consumption pattern has changed.

The main source of gold is withdrawing from the market, and the demand for risk is driving up the price of gold: under the macro background of the current global economic uncertainty and the slow recovery of the US economy, the risk aversion of gold is still rising.

In addition, almost all European countries have stopped selling gold. A very important source of gold has been withdrawn from the market. China will increase its gold reserves in the long run to increase the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves.

We continue to reiterate the target price of the gold target price of US $1350 / ounce.

The four quarter focuses on the strong sectors expected for industrial policy: strongly recommended: Tin shares, Shandong gold, Tibet mining and Sino color shares are cautiously recommended: Gold molybdenum shares, Orient Tantalum Industry, and Baotai shares.

Auto industry: before the abolition of good policies, high quality stocks should be excavated before carnival.

Main points of the report:

Auto sales increased by 6.2% in 1.8 months, slightly better than in previous years.

In August, the total sales volume of the automobile market was 1 million 329 thousand, which rose by 6.2%, showing an obvious trend of seasonal recovery.

The 2.4 quarter auto market trend: continuation of high sales volume can not continue high growth.

In the 4 quarter, the automobile market was faced with two conflicting forces. The centralization of sales and macro-economic downside before the exit of the policy led to the inhibition of automobile demand. Considering the comprehensive consideration, it is expected that the sales volume will continue to be high, but the growth rate will be greatly reduced.

3.

The two level market of automobile sector is relatively reasonable, and the plate risk is consistent with the market.

In recent years, comparing the price to earnings ratio of vehicle sector and all A share price earnings ratio, the price earnings ratio of automobile sector is slightly higher than that of the overall market during the rising cycle.

Since 2010, the price to earnings ratio of vehicle sector is basically the same as that of all A shares.

The 4.4 quarter auto sector investment strategy: theme and performance two ways of thinking.

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In the 4 quarter, the auto market is facing concentrated sales before the policy withdrawal. The sales volume of the auto market will still be higher. But there is also a worry about the decline of the sales volume after the policy exit. The capital market will make a choice between the reality of good sales and the decline of the expected sales. The 4 quarter investment strategy, we think, can be carried out along the two lines of policy themes and performance guarantee.

The policy themes are mainly concerned with the companies benefiting from the policy of supporting the development of their own brands and upgrading the structure of energy saving and emission reduction. The performance assurance idea revolves around the sub sectors that have not benefited from this round of policy stimulus, and their steady growth will be maintained because of their small demand for overdraft, and the performance is guaranteed; the key recommendations are: Shanghai automobile, FAW car, Weichai Power, Futian Automobile, China heavy duty truck, Jiangling Automobile and Yutong Bus.

(Bohai securities)

Electric power equipment: "new energy industry development plan" finalized

During the "12th Five-Year" period, the construction of smart grid, UHV and new energy will become the three carriages to promote the development of power equipment industry.

In the next ten years, the total investment of smart grid is expected to be 1 trillion yuan, and the construction and pformation of digital substation will be carried out in a comprehensive way.

The UHV total investment will be as high as 400 billion yuan, of which equipment investment will reach about 250 billion yuan.

"The new energy industry development plan" will also be released. From 2011 to 2020, the total investment of new energy development is expected to reach 5 trillion yuan, and nuclear power will become the fastest growing new energy.

The smart grid has become the theme of the 12th Five-Year power grid construction. It is estimated that the investment in China's power grid construction will reach 1 trillion and 500 billion yuan in 12th Five-Year, and the investment in UHV pmission lines will be about 400 billion yuan.

The development of smart grid will enter the stage of smart grid demonstration project from the stage of technology and management standard formulation.

Digital substations will be promoted rapidly, and the demand for electronic pformers will increase significantly. The development of digital substations is an important part of building a strong unified smart grid. During the "12th Five-Year" period, with the maturity of digital substation technology, the construction and pformation of digital substations will be carried out in a comprehensive way.

As the basic equipment of the process layer in the digital substation, electronic pformer will gradually replace the traditional pformer.

Therefore, the market of electronic pformers will become one of the key points for the two equipment companies.

The construction of UHV pmission lines will be carried out in an all-round way: the "12th Five-Year" period is an important stage for the development of UHV power grids in China. By 2015, the "Three China" area (North China, East China and Hua Zhong) will form an UHV AC power grid with three vertical three horizontal and one loop networks, and 11 UHVDC pmission lines will be built nationwide.

The UHV total investment will be as high as 400 billion yuan, of which equipment investment will reach about 250 billion yuan.

"The new energy industry development plan" finalized, the fastest growing nuclear power: the national energy board's "new energy industry development plan" has been approved by the NDRC.

It is estimated that the total investment in new energy development will reach 5 trillion yuan from 2011 to 2020.

It is estimated that by 2020, the installed capacity of China's hydropower will reach 380 million kilowatts, the installed capacity of nuclear power will reach 80 million kilowatts, and the installed capacity of wind power will reach 150 million kilowatts.

The installed capacity of nuclear power will increase by nearly 8 times and become the fastest growing new energy.

Investment suggestions: the power equipment plate is a defensive variety, and has a strong ability to resist falls. Meanwhile, the hot sector of the industry is obviously better than the market under the influence of the national industrial policy.

In the fourth quarter, we continue to focus on the Changyuan group, Baili electric, and the new energy sector, which are related to the smart grid.