China'S Bolling, Bolting And Output Forecast In 2010

Project commitment: Cotton Association of China Cotton Association, Xinjiang Huatai Cotton Professional Cooperative

Monitoring objects: 13 cotton producing provinces, cities and districts, 2641 cotton growers.

2010, 8-9, China

According to the weighted average cotton planting area of cotton farmers surveyed, the cotton planting area was 76 million 940 thousand mu in 2010, down 1.1% from the previous year.

As of August, the national average output per unit area was 87.1 kg / mu, which was 3.3 kg / mu less than expected last month, a decrease of 0.4% from last year, with a total output of 6 million 700 thousand tons, a decrease of 260 thousand tons from the previous month, a decrease of 1.5% over the previous year.

In the the Yellow River basin, there were more precipitation and less sunshine in August, and most of the cotton areas were covered with heavy rain. Some areas suffered heavy rainfall and severe floods occurred in some areas. The previous harvest situation was reversed. Most of the provinces had a lower forecast of unit production than the previous period, especially in Shandong. The average sunshine hours in that month were the lowest in the past 50 years.

Due to continuous rain, waterlogging, prolonged water accumulation and strong wind and hail in some cotton fields in the river basin resulted in more serious buds and Bolls in the cotton fields. The peach was mildew and rotten at the bottom. According to the investigation, the ratio of falling to the bud and falling bud reached 16.5%, and the proportion of rotten peach was 16.8%. Among them, Shandong dropped the bell and dropped the bud 22%, and rotten peach 20%.

The number of flowers and bolls was less than that of the same period last year, and the boll opening period was postponed.

By the end of August, the average cotton and boll ratio of each plant was 80.7%, 7 percentage points decreased compared to the same period, 11.8%, 2.5 percentage points, 7.6%, and 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period.

8 the weather improved slightly in the middle and late part of the month. However, due to the high temperature and humidity in the early stage, some cotton fields showed premature decay and death.

Only 27% of the surveyed cotton growers thought the growth was better, 45 percentage points lower than the previous month. 45% thought the growth was bad, which increased 28 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the 77% cotton growers in Shandong thought the growth was bad, contrary to last month.

Although meteorological disasters are serious, the occurrence of pests and diseases is generally lighter than in previous years. 87% of the survey households showed that the disease was relatively light, and 80% of the survey households showed that the pests were less serious.

The continuous hot weather in most parts of the Yangtze River Basin in August resulted in the increase of cotton bolls and abscisions, which caused adverse effects on the peach. In the middle and late ten months of the month, various degrees of rainfall occurred in different provinces. The high temperature weather was alleviated, the cotton grew better, the peach speed increased, and the peach rate increased. From the end of August to the beginning of September, there were several rainstorms in some areas, and the flower buds fell off two times, accompanied by a small amount of falling bell, which had a slight effect on the yield.

Affected by this year's special climate, the growth period of cotton was generally postponed. As of August 31st, the ratio of flower and bolls per plant on average was 92.3%, 10.6 percentage points higher than that in the same period last year. The proportion of boll opening was 5.1%, which was 7.5 percentage points lower than that in the same period last year. The picking ratio was 2.5%, which was 3.2 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year.

Among them, there were few cases of normal boll opening, and the main picking were rotten peach and premature senescence cotton.

Affected by weather and other factors, cotton rotten bolls and bolls were less in August, but falling buds were heavier. The average rotten bolls per plant accounted for 3.6%, and the falling bud and boll accounted for 14.1%.

The growth of cotton in this river basin is relatively large this year. Good seed cotton yield can reach 300-350 kg / mu, and the difference is less than 200 kg / mu, mainly due to varieties and management problems, but overall the growth is better than that in the the Yellow River River Basin.

The cotton growers in the survey considered that the growth rate was 76.6%, an increase of 34.8 percentage points compared to July, which accounted for 11.2% of the poor growth, an increase of 32.3 percentage points compared to July.

The occurrence of pests is relatively mild, mainly Verticillium wilt, Spodoptera litura and Helicoverpa armigera. The cotton farmers surveyed 89% considered the disease to be lighter and 65.9% considered the pests less serious.

Except for rainstorms and floods in some areas in August, most of Xinjiang's cotton growing areas are more suitable for light and warm water conditions, which generally benefit the growth and development of cotton.

Affected by natural disasters such as low temperature and rainstorm, cotton boll opening is generally delayed than in previous years. Only in Turpan and Hami areas, due to higher temperature and early sowing, it has entered the picking period. Most of the rest of the cotton area began to float on the 5-10 day of September. It is expected that a large number of bolls will be delayed until September 25th.

This year, the overall growth of Xinjiang cotton is better, but there is a big gap between the regions. The northern Xinjiang region is affected by low temperature and rainy weather in mid August. The cotton growth cycle is prolonged, and the boll opening period is postponed for 15-20 days.

Xinjiang cotton has gradually entered the harvest period. This year, the regiment picked up a good situation. There are two main reasons: first, the decline of cotton planting area and the reduction of demand for flower workers; two, the delayed maturity of cotton, and the harvest of other crops, and the workers have time to pick.

And local pick up workers are relatively scarce. After the "seven / five" incident, Xinjiang flower picking workers need to handle temporary residence permits and other procedures. Some mainland flower pickup workers are reluctant to enter Xinjiang.

At present, the price of flower picking is mainly 1.5-1.6 yuan / kg, and the shortage area reaches 1.8 yuan / kg.

From the end of August to the beginning of September, sporadic cotton seeds were listed in Turpan and Hami areas in the eastern part of Xinjiang, and the seed cotton price of 40% lint was around 8.05 yuan / kg.

The quoted price of the acquisition company is about 7.8-8 yuan / kg, but because of the small quantity and poor quality, it is only a way to attract cotton farmers.