Global Cotton Output Rebound In 2010/11
ICAC released the latest issue in August 2nd: it is expected to be global in 2010/11.
cotton
The total output was 25 million 200 thousand tons, an increase of 15% over the previous year.
Cotton growers have responded to the jump in cotton prices in 2009/10, which significantly increased their planting area in 2010.
The unit yield is expected to increase slightly to 51 kg / mu.
The increase in production is mainly in the United States and is expected to grow by more than 50% to 4 million 100 thousand tons.
The output of India, Pakistan, China, Brazil, Uzbekistan, Turkey, Australia, the African Franc and other countries is also expected to grow.
2010/11,
Global textile
Driven by the continuous improvement of the global economy, cotton production is expected to continue to grow by 2%, to 24 million 900 thousand tons.
China and India will account for 80% of the growth of global textile cotton.
As China's imports will increase by 22% to 2 million 900 thousand tons, the world's cotton imports will grow by 4% to 8 million tons.
year Output (10000 tons) Consumption (10000 tons) Export volume (10000 tons) Ending inventory (10000 tons) Cotlook A index (cents / lb) 2008/09 year Two thousand three hundred and thirty-five Two thousand three hundred and thirty-nine Six hundred and sixty-three One thousand two hundred and one Sixty-one point two 2009/10 year Two thousand one hundred and ninety Two thousand four hundred and fifty Seven hundred and seventy Nine hundred and forty Seventy-eight 2010/11 year Two thousand five hundred and twenty Two thousand four hundred and ninety Eight hundred Nine hundred and eighty Eighty-five
2010/11
US cotton exports
It is expected to increase by 19% to 3 million 200 thousand tons, while the export of India cotton will drop to 1 million 200 thousand tons because of the reduction of available surplus resources.
Because global cotton production will exceed cotton textile production in 2010/11, the end of world inventory is expected to increase by 3% to 9 million 800 thousand tons.
The inventory consumption ratio is basically stable at 39%, which is 49% lower than the average in the past 5 years.
The ICAC price model predicts that the Cotlook A index will average 85 cents per pound in 2010/11, with a probability of 95% between 71-102 cents / pound.
That means an increase of 9% over the 2009/10 estimate.
However, we must pay attention to the uncertainty existing in the bulk commodity market.
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