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ICAC&Nbsp; World Cotton Output Rebounded Sharply

2010/8/4 14:39:00 40

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2010/11 Global

cotton

Output is expected to grow at 25 million 200 thousand tons, an increase of 15% over 2009/10.

Cotton prices jumped sharply in 2009/10, and farmers responded. The cotton planting area was significantly expanded in 2010.

The average yield is expected to increase slightly to 766 kg / ha.

Output rebounded mainly in the US, and US output is expected to grow by 50% to 4 million 100 thousand tons.

Countries with increased output are expected to be India, Pakistan, China, Brazil, Uzbekistan, Turkey, Australia, the West African Franc and many other countries.

Because of the continuous improvement of global economic growth, 2010/11 world

cotton spinning

Plant consumption is expected to continue to recover, increasing by 2% to 24 million 900 thousand tons.

China and India are expected to account for 80% of the growth of world cotton textile mills in 2010/11.

In 2010/11, global imports continued to rebound, rising 4% to 8 million tons.

This increase is mainly driven by China's imports, and China's imports are expected to grow by 22% to 2 million 900 thousand tons.

In 2010/11, US exports are expected to grow by 19% to 3 million 200 thousand tons, while India's exports may be reduced to 1 million 200 thousand tons, as India's exports can be reduced.

As world cotton production in 2010/11 is expected to exceed that of textile mills, the end of world inventory is expected to grow by 3% to 9 million 800 thousand tons.

The global inventory to consumption ratio is expected to remain at 39%, much lower than the average level of 49% in the past 5 years (2004/05 to 2008/09).

ICAC

Price model forecast, 2010/11 annual average Cotlook A

index

It's 85 cents / pound.

The 95% confidence interval is 71-102 cents / pound.

This forecast means an increase of 9% over the 2009/10 average.

However, due to the great uncertainty in the commodity market, we must proceed with caution.

World cotton supply and demand

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

Million tons

Million pack

yield

Twenty-three point three five

Twenty-one point nine

Twenty-five point two

One hundred and seven point three

One hundred

One hundred and sixteen

Consumption

Twenty-three point three nine

Twenty-four point five

Twenty-four point nine

One hundred and seven point five

One hundred and twelve

One hundred and fourteen

Exit

Six point six three

Seven point seven

Eight

Thirty point four

Thirty-five

Thirty-seven

Ending inventory

Twelve point zero one

Nine point four

Nine point eight

Fifty-five point two

Forty-three

Forty-five

Cotlook A index *

61.2078

85**

Sixty-one point two zero

Seventy-eight

85**

* average annual Cotlook A index (cents per pound).

* * the price forecast for 2010/11 is based on the end stock / consumption rate - the world minus China 2008/09 year (2009/10), 2009/10 (approximate) and 20109/11 (forecast), and the proportion of China's net imports to world imports, 2009/10 (approximate), 2010/11 (pre test).

95% reliable area: 71-102 cents / pound.