Cotton Market Has Experienced An Unprecedented Light Situation Recently.

Adjustment of market weakness

Since July (7.1-7.12), Zheng cotton main force CF1101 contract has fallen continuously, and has broken down 16500 yuan / ton important support position, continues to explore and seek new support, the K-line is suppressed by the average, the overall performance of the disk is weak, and it has been supported recently in the 16295 line.

The main contract CF1101 of Zheng cotton futures has been maintaining weak adjustment since July 1st. The monthly line is on the negative line, and the daily line is suppressed by the EMA. There is no rush to rush, and even the key supporting position of the key callbacks and 16500 yuan / ton is broken, and the weak atmosphere of the entire disk is adjusted vigorously.

Since the issuance of quasi tax quotas and the expectation of dumping and storage control, although the spot prices are still high, futures, matching electronic plates and other markets have declined to varying degrees. Judging from the current survey, the new cotton market will be postponed for about 10~15 days this year. If there is a supply gap, the country will throw cotton reserves to control cotton prices.

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Recently, the newly released USDA monthly report on the 2010/2011 global cotton production is expected to increase again than last month.

Specific expectations are as follows:

Output: expected global output of 25 million 260 thousand tons, an increase of 369 thousand tons from last month.

China's output is 7 million 185 thousand tons, and India's 5 million 443 thousand tons have not been adjusted. The US output is 3 million 984 thousand tons, increased by 348 thousand tons, and Pakistan's 2 million 221 thousand tons, which has been reduced by 65 thousand tons.

Consumption: global consumption is expected to increase by 26 million 62 thousand tonnes and 45 thousand tons.

The consumption volume of China and India is expected to be 1066.9 and 4 million 442 thousand tons, respectively, while Pakistan's 2 million 526 thousand tons will be reduced by 21 thousand tons.

Volume of import and export trade: the total volume of Global trade is about 8 million 60 thousand tons.

Among them, China's import volume is expected to reach 2 million 537 thousand tons, an increase of 33 thousand tons, and that of Turkey and Pakistan is 718 thousand tons and 501 thousand tons, respectively, increasing by 65 thousand and 87 thousand tons respectively.

The export volume of the United States and India was 3 million 113 thousand and 1 million 285 thousand tons, respectively, increasing by 174 thousand and 22 thousand tons respectively.

Final inventory: estimated 10 million 867 thousand tons at the end of the world, up 70 thousand tons from last month.

The US end inventory was 762 thousand tons, an increase of 152 thousand tons from the previous month.

Pakistan has increased 130 thousand tons for 738 thousand tons.

New cotton listing postponed promotion of throwing storage

Perhaps the delay in the listing of new cotton may be the reason for the dumping.

According to the China Cotton Association, the state has made preparations for importing and throwing reserves in order to cope with the possible delay in the listing of new cotton this year.

If the market fluctuates violently, the dumping will be issued as scheduled.

In view of the uncertain economic environment at home and abroad, with the decline of textile mills' bearing capacity for high cotton prices, and the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, or the future demand of cotton will decline, this will lead to another medium term adjustment of Zheng cotton.