Cotton: Where Is The Reasonable Price?

　　 When the market falls signal People always think that it is impossible. Cotton supply and demand so tight, how will it fall? 18000 or even 20000 of the price is the current reasonable price. Excuse me, where is the reasonable price?

Is the price of 13700 in the initial stage of cotton purchase in 09 reasonable? Is the supply and demand at this time much higher in the whole year? Is cotton reasonable at 15000? Did cotton show nervousness at that time? Cotton reached 17000, and people thought it reasonable, but cotton could still rise again, to 18000, and people thought the price at that time was even more unreasonable, and the price should be over 20000. Is there a reasonable price in the market? The mutual recognition and transaction between suppliers and buyers at a certain stage is reasonable. Price is driven by the demand and supply, and is constantly in the minds of people. expand Under the constant push of capital, under the constant urging of interests, prices evolution The evolution deviates from the value and goes to the end of the orbit. When the market corrections, it is unreasonable. What kind of party should not? A balance in a limited time and space after a period of time, will be broken, it is necessary to establish a new balance in another time. A rising market does not exist. This is the truth. Moreover, a lot of information signals remind people from time to time that the risk is increasing in your continuous profit chasing. How can expansive minds not listen to the adverse wind? The fact is that the cotton price has dropped down, and it is astonishing to think that this is unreasonable.

Speaking of reasonable price, it should be the fluctuation of value itself. According to cotton 09, the purchase price of 13700, plus the monthly cost of 120 yuan, should be 14900. such a cost. We sold 18500, and the profit reached 3600, which is reasonable. When cotton prices fall 14900 in a state of capital preservation, this should also be reasonable. When it falls to 11300 and losses 3600, it should be reasonable. If you make 3600 reasonable, then you lose 3600 is not reasonable? Of course not to that extent. Therefore, rationality is the response of the market in stages, so long as the market reflects it is reasonable.

At 18500, people expected 20000 of their expectations. When some empty information came, they boycotted it all. Blame the state for regulation and control, blame others for falling down, complain that the new period is not strong, and blame the God for not fighting. Hate can let nature sweep away the cotton in the world, leaving only the stock in hand. However, contrary to expectations, everything develops to a certain stage and transforms to the opposite direction. Even if the country no longer throws stores, cotton prices will fall back. This is an objective necessity.

Still looking forward to the coming of that 20000? The price of 18800 will be history. The best choice is to follow the market and follow the trend. Cotton prices must go back to his value range. Open the history of cotton prices in China, 15000 of spot prices are not low prices.