The Internal And External Situation Forces The "Center Of Gravity" To Shift&Nbsp; Highlight The "Structure" Problem In The Second Half Of The Year

Since June 25, relevant responsible persons of the State Council have spent their time in continuous research and meetings. On June 28 and 29, the State Council held a series of symposiums on the economic situation, pointing out that "efforts should be made to promote economic restructuring, institutional reform and Economics Change of development mode. " From July 1 to 3, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council hosted a symposium on the economic situation of Hubei, Hunan and Guangdong provinces in Changsha, again pointing out the importance and urgency of structural adjustment.

In the past week, domestic and foreign institutions have expected that the intensive research and meetings of the State Council are the prelude for the decision-makers to make the final judgment on the economic situation in the first half of the year and determine the direction of macro-control in the second half of the year. In the second half of the year, China's macro focus will shift to "structural adjustment", which will be more clear.

Complex situation highlights the problem of "structure"

According to the meeting of the State Council Economics The situation is "the most complex". Experts and scholars said in an interview that the complexity of economic expectations is reflected in three aspects: the slowdown of the domestic economy, the unclear effect of early policies, and the unpredictable prospects of the world economy.

On July 2, due to the disappointing US June non farm employment report released on the same day, Wall Street analysts almost unanimously agreed that the economic recovery of the US and Europe was still fragile. As a result, the New York stock market continued to decline, and the Dow Jones Index closed down for the seventh consecutive trading day, the longest consecutive decline since the "eight consecutive cloudy days" on October 10, 2008.

The day before, the prediction department of the National Information Center recently released Economics According to the business climate monitoring and early warning report, the world economic growth will slow down, and China's export growth will fall under the dual factors of weakening external demand and raising the base. Therefore, the main economic indicators and economic prosperity index will continue to decline.

The World Bank's latest China Economic Quarterly Report believes that China's economic growth will decline from 2010 to 2020, but it will remain at a considerable level. Relevant analysts of JPMorgan Chase told reporters that policy tightening is leading to a slowdown in China's economy, which will affect Asia and even the global economy. In addition, it is expected that the growth rate of global industrial production will slow down to 6% in the second half of 2010. Although this growth rate is still strong, it is only half of the level in the first half of 2010.

"The complexity of the economic situation is more reflected in the fact that the early regulation effect is not completely obvious, and the structural problems in the economy are further emerging," said a researcher from the Development Research Center of the State Council.

Since the financial crisis, the "growth protection" measures have stimulated economic growth, but also exposed the structural problems in China's economic operation. Since this year, the problem of irrational economic structure has become more serious. Due to being trapped in both the internal and external environment, the uncertainty of the current economic situation in China has increased, monetary policy is difficult to start between slowing economic growth and curbing inflation expectations, administrative policies are stretched thin, and macro-control is facing more "dilemmas".

Internal and external situations force the shift of "focus"

"The internal and external situation requires the Chinese economy to face the structural adjustment bravely. If there is any further hesitation in understanding and action, it may face passivity and pay more costs at the same time." Wang Jian, secretary-general of the Chinese Society of Macroeconomics, told reporters.

Wang Jian believes that since the second half of 2008, the Chinese government has been able to guide the Chinese economy to take the lead in rebounding, mainly through two measures. First, the sharp expansion of investment demand has led to the sharp contraction of export demand, so the demand contribution of investment in last year's economic growth exceeded 85%; The second is to rely on the massive credit supply of nearly 10 trillion yuan.

However, before the outbreak of the sub debt crisis, China's economy had formed a background of overproduction. Under such a background, China continued to increase investment. Although it could rely on a new round of investment expansion to drive growth for a period of time, by the time of capacity release, the original contradiction of overproduction would not ease, but became more intense.

Experts from the Macro Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission believe that there is a contradiction between the lack of domestic demand and the overdraft of domestic demand in the current economic structure of China. In the first two months, the trend of China's export growth exceeding expectations is unlikely to continue. However, due to the cyclical effect of durable goods consumption, there is little room for China's auto consumption and household appliances consumption to continue to grow at an excessive speed under the policy stimulus. In addition, in terms of industrial structure, there are also disharmonious contradictions between solving the problem of overcapacity and upgrading the technology of traditional industries, revitalization of emerging industries, etc.

Zhou Jingtong, from the Bank of China Institute of International Finance, said that in the next 10 years, the traditional driving force of China's economic growth, including investment, exports and demographic dividends, will inevitably decline. China's economy will enter an era of medium and low growth, which requires all sectors of society to take precautions, enhance their consciousness and initiative in transforming the development mode and adjusting the economic structure, and avoid falling into the "middle-income trap".

The external situation is also pressing. "After the crisis, some countries' position in the world economic pattern will rise, while others will decline. One important reason is that different countries have different sensitivities and speed of action on the industrial commanding heights." An analyst from the World Bank's China Office said so.

In late June, the Obama administration of the United States again identified the three major industrial breakthroughs after the crisis, namely smart grid, new energy and energy conservation and efficiency increase. In order to cope with the economic development after the crisis, the governments of Japan and South Korea in Asia have recently announced that they will be committed to expanding new growth drivers, including further adjusting the energy consumption structure and vigorously cultivating green industries.

A hundred year plan needs to cross the "watershed" {page_break}

Relevant scholars and experts said optimistically to the reporter, "China's economy is standing on the watershed, which is the watershed of the policy direction in the first half and second half of this year, the policy watershed since the financial crisis, and even the watershed of the 30 years of reform and opening up and the future economic trend."

In the recent week, some economic analysts in Europe and the United States expressed doubts about China's growth, and described China's increasingly weak countermeasures to deal with economic problems with "few policy bullets left in Beijing".

Zhang Liqun, a researcher of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that there was no need to be extremely pessimistic about the prospects of China's economic development, and the argument that the Chinese government was "helpless" to maintain economic growth was groundless. Tang Min, Deputy Secretary General of the China Development Research Foundation, also said, "The goals and environment have changed, and the direction of the use of policy ammunition will also change. Now the so-called ammunition is not a policy to stimulate the economy, but a means to solve a series of economic problems."

On July 2, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology confirmed that it would use financial and credit funds to guide the textile industry to move to high-end areas and accelerate the pace of industrial upgrading. On June 21, the People's Bank of China, China Banking Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission and China Insurance Regulatory Commission made several suggestions on further improving financial services for SMEs. Adhere to the principle of maintaining pressure and clarifying the key points of support, and actively promote the healthy development of small and medium-sized enterprises that meet the requirements of national industrial policies. The reporter learned from the Ministry of Finance that the Ministry of Finance has recently studied and formulated the Interim Measures for the Management of Development Funds for Small and Medium sized Enterprises in Local Characteristic Industries to standardize and strengthen the management of development funds for small and medium-sized enterprises in local characteristic industries and improve the efficiency of fund use.

According to the plan of the State owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, in 2010, the number of central enterprises will be reduced to 80 to 100. At present, there are 129 central enterprises, a total of 86 (including its holding subsidiaries) of which are listed in A-shares. Most of them are traditional industries, many of which are listed in overcapacity and require restructuring and integration. In the second half of the year, SASAC will actively guide enterprise restructuring, promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, and accelerate the transformation of the economic development mode.

Zhang Liqun said that "transforming the mode of economic development is a long-term and complex process, which requires hard work. And 'restructuring' will undoubtedly become the main theme of China's economic development in the next stage." He said, "The focus in the second half of this year will be to focus on solving the problems of medium - and long-term development, and work hard on income distribution reform, energy conservation and emission reduction, and institutional reform."

An economist who participated in the symposium of the State Council said to the leaders of the State Council: "Now we must grit our teeth and stick to it. At the lowest affordable economic growth rate, we must increase the intensity of structural adjustment. This is China's long-term plan for sustainable development."