&Nbsp: The Key Resistance Level Is &Nbsp; 79.00-79.30&Nbsp; Cents.
Price this week
Acceleration of fall
But turnover has improved.
The market (10 cotton contract in December) lost about 5.5% from the highest point in June 16th.
The volume of options decreased again, and implied volatility remained at a low level.
Outlook for the future
market
A number of key short-term prices have been cleared on the way down, and the market's view of the important high point at about 80 cents / pound is further confirmed.
At the lowest point this week, the market explored the upper end of the 75-74 cent (December contract) important support area.
If the market closes below 74 cents, then the market will follow up and confirm that it will exert considerable pressure on the long-term trend line which is still optimistic.
However, from a short-term perspective, the market seems unable to remove this supporting area in a firm way.
A better short-term resistance level should be between 77.50 and 78.25 cents.
The key resistance is 79.00-79.30 cents.
Us - June 30th US Department of agriculture report shows that as of June 1st, the United States cotton cultivation area of 10 million 900 thousand acres (compared with March intention report more than 4 thousand hectares).
June 1st is the deadline for reporting.
Compared with the 9 million 140 thousand acres planted last year, the planting area increased by 20% this year.
From then on, the topic of discussion will be potential output, which is usually affected by the weather from the present to the completion of the picking stage.
In terms of weather, the weather in the second half of 6 is favorable for cotton growth and widespread precipitation in the southern United States.
As of June 27th, 62%.
Cotton growth
For good - excellent, 33% of cotton and 6% of cotton were very poor (compared to 42%, 32% and 26% in the same period last year).
This year's planting in West Africa and West Africa is under way. We all hope that this year's planting area will be expanded.
Cotton ginning companies are basically able to take advantage of the higher New York market price and favorable dollar / euro exchange rate. They have sold 2/3 of the target output of 2010/11, and they have hardly seen such a high percentage of cotton in the past 10 years.
Cotton ginning merchants take advantage of this advantage and encourage farmers to grow cotton with good seed cotton prices.
Therefore, we predict that cotton production in West Africa will increase by 15-20%.
Unfortunately, output has increased to only 600 thousand tons, compared with a record of 1 million 200 thousand tons.
From now on, the weather will become an important topic. However, most areas are reporting good rainfall coverage.
From the point of view of logistics, almost all the old cotton received notice of shipment.
Since the shipment time is mainly in May -7 months, the port will be very difficult to deal with these quantities.
Due to the fact that containers and space are becoming less and less, the shipment time may be seriously delayed.
It is not yet clear whether the local cotton can really meet all export sales.
The price of the China Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange has broken through the recent main force, which is about 18200, and at the same time, it challenged the key resistance level 18350 (10 year September contract), creating a new contract, but so far, the closing price has not been sure to break through this price.
The new cotton contract on the Zhengzhou mercantile exchange is generally weak. Therefore, unlike the old cotton, the new cotton market is strong, and the closing price of the Zhengzhou mercantile exchange basically has no rise or fall.
At the same time, there was no specific information this week about cotton reserves and import quotas.
Textile mills are interested in buying foreign cotton, which is concentrated in the three quarter of 2010, mainly in refurbished cotton, Brazil and East / southeast Africa cotton.
The growth of new cotton is still normal.
It is reported that rainstorms did not affect the main cotton growing areas.
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