Cotton Prices Have Not Reached The Peak Or Have Increased Momentum.

And the 600 thousand tons.

First, the stock of textile enterprises is adequate enough to support them.

At present, many enterprises in the market are hyping the problem of cotton shortfall, but according to the survey data of the relevant agencies, the average cotton inventory in China increased from 38.13 days last month to 41.21 days in May, and the cotton industrial inventory was increased from 1 million 209 thousand tons to 1 million 305 thousand and 700 tons, and the larger cotton stocks of enterprises were generally over 3 months.

By the end of May 2010, the total domestic cotton business inventory was 2 million 460 thousand tons.

Therefore, before new cotton is listed, cotton can basically meet downstream demand.

According to the survey conducted by the China Cotton Association, many textile enterprises are actively buying in low cotton prices due to the shortage of cotton resources. Large and medium-sized enterprises are quite stocking at present. Some large textile enterprises have 6 months of cotton consumption, and some medium-sized enterprises can keep the cotton reserves until the end of August.

These are enough to prove that the domestic cotton resources are sufficient enough to support the new flower listing.

Two, the national quota is promulgated, 600 thousand tons.

For the early days of the stir up of the weather factors, and the beginning of the adverse effects, many areas of cotton planting delay, removal, bud lag, cotton production delay, but this does not mean that cotton harvest must be bad.

Because of the long cotton growth cycle and strong ability to resist disasters, according to the climate characteristics of this year, some early cotton varieties are replanted in some cotton areas and strengthened management. Cotton is still expected to achieve a good harvest.

At present, the plan for dumping 600 thousand tons of cotton quota has been approved, and the trading rules have been completed and ready to start.

Although less than a month's consumption, its impact on the society is enough to affect the price of cotton in the market, and the pattern of cotton rising is not known.

In addition, in view of the possible delay in the launch of new cotton this year, the state has made preparations for importing, throwing and storing.

At the same time, the state will adopt a series of supporting policies to ensure the market supply of cotton.

Cotton supply is expected to return to balance under the state's macroeconomic regulation and control, and cotton prices need to be restored to reason.

Three, the international economic situation has a "two bottom" threat, cotton demand or hindered.

Although the GDP of all countries continues to maintain a resumption of growth, the CPI index also shows a rebound trend, industrial production is stable, consumer confidence index and retail sales of consumer goods are also gradually strengthening, but the unemployment rate is still high, and the international economy has a "two bottom" threat.

The European economy continued to suffer. The Greek crisis has not yet passed. Spain is facing a credit rating downgrade. Fitch also downgraded the credit rating of Paris Bank of France at the end of June.

The fact that the international economic situation is not stable is still restricting the uplink of cotton. In the recent cotton market, the tight market has disappeared and replaced by high priced cotton and storehouses.

Four, the RMB exchange rate reform starts, textile profits continue downward.

19, according to the spokesman of the central bank, according to the domestic and international economic and financial situation and the situation of China's balance of payments, the people's Bank of China decided to further promote the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and enhance the RMB exchange rate flexibility.

Then, on the 22 day, when the people's Bank of China reiterated the second trading days after the reunification, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate changed to the previous level. It broke through the 6.80 pass against the US dollar's middle price, setting a new high since July 2005.

Since then, although the price of RMB has slowed down, by the year June 28th, the RMB has reached 6.7965 against the US dollar, up about 5/1000 from 21.

The negative impact of RMB appreciation on the textile industry can not be ignored.

According to the study, RMB appreciation rate is 1%, the sales profit margin of the textile industry has dropped by 2%-6%, and the garment industry with higher export dependence has been more damaged.

Although the increase is only 5/1000, the sales profit margin of the textile industry has dropped by 1%-3%, which is undoubtedly a fatal blow to the textile enterprises with low profit margins.

Five, multiple negative impact, cotton prices difficult to rise

At present, the problem of cotton gap has ceased to exist. The cotton gap in the market is only a strategy of businessmen, and domestic cotton supply basically tends to be balanced.

In addition, the international economic situation and the macroeconomic regulation and control of the country are the main factors limiting the continued rise in cotton prices.

Although cotton prices are still at a high level at the present stage, most enterprises have turned to wait-and-see, and cotton prices continue to rise sharply.

The strengthening of the RMB appreciation will not be conducive to the development of cotton and its downstream textile industry, and cotton will continue to rise little space, or the price will have reached its peak.