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Consensus: Cotton Traders Look At The Market In July 1St

2010/7/1 16:10:00 63

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Difficult direction

Shock

Last night, USDA's new year's cotton planting area increased by 19% compared with this year's forecast to the US cotton belt pressure, the contracts fell sharply, fell to the recent low.

Today's matching volume is 8560 tons, a sharp decrease of 10120 tons compared with yesterday. The volume returned to the level near June 28th. The total volume of orders decreased by 1200 tons, mainly reflected in the recent 3 month contracts. From the closing price, the MA6 month contracts rose more or less, with a very small margin.

There are three main characteristics of today's match: first, the paction is shrinking.

In the face of the increase in the area of the new cotton and the new cotton situation in the country, and the global economy has two bottom searches, it is difficult for traders to decide whether to choose to wait and see; the two is to reduce the warehouse position in recent months.

The order volume of the first 3 months of the new cotton market showed a downward trend, indicating that traders were worried about the pending regulatory measures and chose to leave.

The three is a slight concussion.

The 6 month contract is neither large nor small, indicating that the direction is unclear and needs guidance.

Individuals still insist that the cotton price will remain high at the top of cotton fundamentals, but we must be vigilant against the impact of the economic level.

The words of a family are for reference only.

(Tian Ya)

Shrinkage reduction and concussion finishing

Overnight

New York cotton

Prices fell sharply under the pressure of the Ministry of agriculture's report on the dramatic increase in the new flower area. The index closed down 175 points in December at 76.38 cents, and the lowest price reached 75.86 cents.

The market has already been anticipated before the increase of the area and the callback is ahead of schedule. Short term US cotton spot low inventory and high export may boost the latter price, so we should not overlook it.

Domestic spot cotton prices continue to rise slightly, such a continuous rise for a long time to strengthen the bullish atmosphere of the market, the end of the year will also urge the market to begin to re-examine the total cotton output this year. In the highly developed information technology, China's error in the area and output statistics of cotton is the root cause of this super high rise.

Today, the cotton market has been matching the electronic market in order to cope with the decline in the price of Zhengdao cotton and the external market. The market has opened up but has not followed up for a long time.

The total volume has shrunk to 8560 tons, and the total volume of orders has been 169580 tons, down 1220 tons.

Matchmaking price has been arranged for two weeks. In the short term, it is faced with the requirement of directional choice. Personally, it is expected that if the external market rebounded and strengthened, it would be possible to bring up the breakthrough.

The words of a family are for reference only.

(old Chinese Medicine)

Low open oscillation and long wait and see

In July 1st, the overall market opened slightly lower, and the situation was still in a stalemate and wait-and-see state. With the upward oscillation in the trading market, the short-term interest of speculative capital was not strong enough to open up the stock market, while the short selling market was short of strength and confidence, and the Bulls still took the initiative. On the 1 day, only 8560 tons of contracts were sold, which fell sharply compared with yesterday.

Order quantity

Also increased by 1220 tons, of which the active contract MA1009 traded 3040 tons, up 19 points, traders were not active, the disk price was in the narrow range of 17900-18000 cars, personal analysis is due to the current cotton spot market performance is strong, throwing and storing cotton import quotas and a series of regulatory policies only stay in the "expected" stage, coupled with some cotton mill raw material inventory is low, actively purchasing high expectations of hoarding cotton enterprises and so on, and many of them mainly rely on energy storage, trying to continue to pressure on the September contract, forcing the warehouse is a major topic.

But personally think: first, the second half of 2010, China's economic situation will be very delicate, monetary policy tightening, prevention of inflation and the pressure of RMB exchange rate adjustment are more prominent; two, the cotton planting area is expected to grow by 20%, cotton growth is better, India government cotton exports from the new year's lifting of the ban, once the cotton price adjustment in place, China's cotton business in the second half or increase imports of foreign cotton; three, into July, the sales pressure and loan pressure of hoarding cotton enterprises have risen to varying degrees, high position to become the only option.

Therefore, the cotton market will break through the oscillation in July, and the expected rise in oscillation in 7-9 months.

The words of a family are for reference only.