Three Factors Affecting The Export Of Leather Industry

Since the financial crisis, China's economy has been greatly affected, mainly in the export trade. After a short period of self adjustment, China's economy has begun to pick up steadily and the consumer market is gradually recovering. However, judging from the international economic situation, many other countries are still struggling in the crisis, especially the recent Dubai crisis and the recent EU economic recession, which has cast a shadow on the international market, especially as a big market for China's foreign trade market, the Russian market is still in a state of uncertainty.

It has been reported that since 2009, China has invested hundreds of millions of yuan in the fur trading market in Russia, which should have been completed in April 2010. But for various reasons, the market declared a premature death in late April, which has brought a heavy blow to China's fur industry. Foreign leather and leather processing enterprises and garment factories are hard to find the main direction this year. They are forced to change their business methods, from the main trade to foreign trade and domestic trade, so as to wait for the opportunity to make a comeback.

Recently, I visited many fur clothing production market in Hebei, and found that the overall situation is not very optimistic. Many businessmen are seriously lack of confidence in this year's export situation. Especially for the production enterprises that mainly attack foreign trade, it will be more than half a year. Most enterprises reflect that "at present there is no sense yet". We can not confirm whether to do foreign trade or border trade, we can not decide whether to do more or less, but we have no way to determine what to do.

In view of the delay in the peak season of fur production, combined with the current economic situation, it is easy to see that the factors that affect the export confidence of Hebei fur clothing industry are basically three:

I. the slow pace of international economic recovery has a direct impact on the export expectations of the leather industry.

Judging from the situation in the first quarter of this year, the pace of international economic recovery is still very slow, and the global economic situation is still uncertain.

The unemployment rate in the US and EU continues to be around 10%.

The well-known Greek debt crisis led to the depreciation of the euro. At the beginning of 2010, the euro maintained a 1.365 level against the US dollar. According to statistics, the euro fell to its lowest level in 4 years after Germany banned naked short selling in May 18th.

In particular, the sovereign debt problem of the European Union countries may trigger a new round of European crisis.

In addition, developing countries are facing the pressure of inflation at present. India, Brazil and other countries have adopted the policy of tightening interest rates, which has increased the uncertainty of economic development.

As a result, there will be a surge of fur imports in 2010. When more imported fur comes into China, the price of domestic fur will rise and fall. Under this background, the trend of global protectionism is inevitable.

China is originally the biggest victim of trade protectionism, and the low value-added problem is the impact of exports of light industrial products.

According to the customs statistics, from the monthly situation, in the first quarter of 2010, the export of Chinese leather products showed a trend of decreasing month by month, and the export volume in March was even lower than that of the same period in 2009.

Whether the trend of leather products exports will gradually rebound will change in the two quarter.

Meanwhile, in March 2010, the import volume of leather products hit a new high in the past three years, of which raw material skin imports increased by 38.5% year-on-year.

A large number of imported raw skins and semi processed leather for reprocessing can be digested in the short term in the case of external demand weakening. In the first quarter, China's leather products' foreign trade appeared a "low one high" anomaly, which is a very noteworthy problem.

Judging from the steady and steady rise in the price of leather and leather raw materials in the domestic market, the situation of "one low and one high" is likely to continue. Fur and finished products will continue to decline, leather and leather raw material imports will continue to grow, and the risk factor of fur clothing export enterprises will increase indefinitely until the end of the second quarter.

Against the backdrop of slow international economic recovery,

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Two.

Recently, whether the RMB should appreciate has become a topic of great interest in the world.

First, the Japanese finance minister made a request at the meeting of finance ministers of seven countries, followed by statements by the US Treasury Secretary Snow and the Asia Europe meeting convened by Indonesia. They all called for the appreciation of the renminbi. Recently, the US "Sound Dollar alliance" also proposed to promote the appreciation of the renminbi through the "301 clause". Greenspan's speech made the world focus on the RMB again in the face of global deflationary pressure.

It can be said that the government and the people are united to work together to solve the RMB exchange rate problem.

The controversy over the RMB exchange rate, which was launched by Japan and the United States, is playing an important role in the world.

In recent years, the game between the US dollar and the renminbi has come to a standstill, and this year there has been a strong momentum.

US President Obama once pressed China two times in January and March this year to demand appreciation of the renminbi, and decided to issue the first semi annual exchange rate report this year to determine whether China has manipulated the exchange rate.

The attitude of the US government is very tough.

There is a notable phenomenon. Since the beginning of March, low-key RMB has also appeared in international trade settlement frequently. Russia, Brazil and Africa have begun to settle accounts in RMB.

This can be regarded as a signal, and a fact has become clearer and clearer. When RMB status is becoming more and more important, the appreciation of RMB has been revealed. Otherwise, management will not emphasize repeatedly.

Of course, the change of exchange rate is closely related to domestic interest rate, money supply, national income level and price level. Whether a currency should appreciate or depreciate should be determined by the market rather than by politics.

The dispute over the RMB exchange rate remains essentially a trade dispute.

The reason why the US pressure RMB appreciation is that the depreciation of the US dollar only "greatly enhanced the export competitiveness of Chinese enterprises and stimulated the export of Chinese products", especially when the US dollar depreciated in 2002, while the US trade deficit hit a historical peak of US $435 billion 200 million, and the trade deficit with China reached US $103 billion 100 million.

The US hopes that the appreciation of the renminbi will impede the large-scale entry of Chinese goods into the United States.

Three, the rise of domestic CPI drives raw material prices to rise, which directly leads to increased production costs.

In April, China's consumer price (CPI) rose 2.8%, an increase of 0.2%, or a new high since November 2008.

CPI rise will directly drive all kinds of price increases, which is a general understanding of CPI.

Since 2009, the fur market has seen a continuous rise in fur prices, and some fur products have increased by more than 40%.

For example, in the low price period of last year, the price of a kind of leather was about 380 yuan / Zhang, and this year's spring has risen to nearly 700 yuan / Zhang, and the price of other fur has also risen to varying degrees.

For fur clothing enterprises, the price of raw materials has been rising too fast and the export of fur clothing has been blocked and the price has been unstable, which has caused a great contrast. This contrast has caused many enterprises to have great fear of the market. Therefore, it is inevitable that the export enterprises are in a state of uncertainty.

We might as well think about it from a different angle. As a production enterprise, whether it is domestic or exported, it is relative. The key is on a "pin" word, so long as the products produced can be sold to earn the deserved profits, this is success.

Compared with the international economic situation, China's economic recovery is getting stronger and stronger. The consumption level and consumption ability of the market are recovering. The rise in CPI prices with animal prices is a good proof. This will happen.

To sum up, the domestic market is basically controllable while the export market is basically uncontrollable in terms of product prices.

The crisis of single foreign trade market has told us that it is a way out and a way out to start the domestic market again.

The road to export is bumpy and risky. It has been proved that if we insist on a way out to the outside market, there will be two kinds of situations, or desperate, or sitting still. But these two ways are not good choices.

Instead of facing the risk and sighing, it is better to go around the road. At this point, on the one hand, insisting on doing outside and not giving up, on the one hand, doing some domestic marketing difficulties is the best choice.