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Buffett'S "Never Outdated" Investment Forecast

2010/6/25 16:52:00 123

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One is that recession can never be avoided.

Towards the end of 2007,

Buffett

In reply to Becky Quick, if the unemployment rate rises sharply, Domino will fall off, and the US economy will fall into recession in 2008.

His prediction was right, but he did not sound the alarm.

The nature of capitalist economy is the same period of economic recession.

People often overreact. "

(Buffett told Becky that she was young at the age of 37 and could experience 6 to 7 recession.

)

Two, we will survive the present and the future.

We will survive the recession of the present and the future, just as we have survived many times in the past.

Three is the recession.

create

Opportunity.

The best stock buying opportunity I've had so far is in 1974.

It was a period of extreme pessimism, the oil embargo, the stagnation of the economy, and many other similar adverse events.

But that makes stocks very cheap.

Four, not all stocks are cheap.

Successful investors should be like baseball stars.

Ted Williams

Waiting for a lucky shot, waiting for the right stock to drop to the right price, but not every day.

"The best thing about investing is that you don't need to bat in a forced situation.

You can see if the ball is above or below the navel, but you do not have to swing the ball.

No referee will get you out. "

You should decide whether to buy it or not according to your own judgement.

But if you listen to the crowd swing, hit and swing, you will be in big trouble.

Five, most people will be wrong.

Buffett often quoted a famous saying by his tutor Graham: "you are right because your facts are correct and your reasoning is correct. This is the only reason why you are right.

If your facts and reasoning are correct, you will no longer have to consider what others think.

Six, investors always erroneously believe that the fall in share prices is a bad thing.

I am surprised if the price of hamburger is reduced today.

I wouldn't be angry to think that yesterday I had spent more money on McDonald's hamburgers.

I will definitely buy a cheaper hamburger right away.

Anything you want to buy in the future, you want to be cheaper.

Seven, the bigger the bull market, the more likely it will lead to a major error buying decision.

In a letter to shareholders in 2000, Buffett likened the investors who bought a lot of crazy buying stocks at the stock market to the Cinderella at the ball: "they know that the cash flow of some companies in the future can be overestimated to an astonishing degree, but they continue to speculate in buying these stocks, just as Cinderella knows that after a long stay in the celebrations, the carriage will turn back to the pumpkin and the horse will return to the rat.

But they never want to miss this carnival for a minute.

Therefore, these dizzy participants only want to leave before the last moment.

But the problem is that they dance in a room with no hands at the clock.

The last prediction

After a painful and drunken drunkenness, people will dance and dance at another crazy party.

"The whole world is crazy.

The lesson we learn from history is that people never learn from history.