The Current Price Trend Is Still A Structural Increase Of &Nbsp; There Will Be A Downward Trend In The Future.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 3.1% in May, down 0.1% from the same month.

Some people worry that our Congress will not enter the path of price rise, and even there will be a slowdown in economic growth and inflationary pressures.

How to understand the current price situation?

The tail factor has great influence.

First, look at the characteristics of CPI changes in May.

From the year-on-year perspective, the CPI rose by 3.1% in May, of which the influence of the tail factor was 1.8 percentage points, the new price increase factor was 1.3 percentage points, and eight categories of goods and services prices rose six and two respectively.

Among them, food prices rose by 6.1%, pushing up the overall price level rose by nearly 2 percentage points.

Prices rose more frequently: fresh vegetables, dried beans and bean products, fresh fruits, grains and so on. The prices of meat and poultry and their products increased by 0.8% compared with the same period last year.

The prices of medical and health care and personal products increased by 3.2%; the prices of tobacco and liquor and goods increased by 1.7%; the prices of entertainment, educational and cultural goods and services increased by 0.6%; the prices of traffic and communications increased by 0.1%; and the four types of jointly promoted prices rose by 0.5 percentage points.

Housing prices rose by 5%, pushing up the overall price level by about 0.8 percentage points.

Clothing, household appliances and maintenance prices fell by 1.2% and 0.3% respectively over the same period.

Prices of eight categories of commodities have gone up and down.

From the point of view of the ring ratio, CPI fell by 0.1% in May, and the prices of eight categories of commodities decreased by two, two and four respectively. The two decrease was food and pportation. The decline in the price of the chain was mainly affected by the price drop of fresh vegetables.

Among them, the price of food decreased by 0.5% compared with the same period. The price of food decreased: the price of fresh vegetables dropped by 9.8%, the overall level of prices was reduced by about 0.3 percentage points, the prices of meat and poultry and its products dropped by 0.6%, and the prices of traffic and communications decreased by 0.1%.

The price of clothing increased by 0.2%, the prices of medical care and personal products increased by 0.5%, and the price of jewelry rose by 3%, while the price of residential goods rose 0.2%.

The rise in the prices of these three commodities has led to an increase of CPI by about 0.1 percentage points.

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Seasonal upward momentum is weakening.

Integrating these characteristics, Sheng Sheng Yun, a spokesman for the National Bureau of statistics, thinks there are two main reasons why CPI reaches 3.1%.

One is the tail up factor.

In May last year, CPI was relatively low. Last year, the price trend was low and high. In December last year, the CPI growth rate was 1.9%, which is bound to have a great influence on the price rise this year.

The effect of the tail factor on the CPI is 1.8 percentage points.

The second reason is that the price of food and housing is rising, and its contribution rate is about 90%.

Therefore, he judged that the current price rise is still a structural increase.

Sheng Lai Yun further pointed out that from May, the pressure on current prices and future price increases has eased.

First, the price of the ring in May dropped by 0.1%, which is 0.2% higher than that of last month.

The main reason is that with the improvement of weather, the driving force of price rise driven by the seasonal rise of some agricultural products in the early stage is weakening, for example, vegetables, the ratio of fresh vegetables in May decreased by 9.8%, which played an important role in the decline of CPI.

Two, with the deepening of the international financial crisis, especially the deepening of the debt crisis in Europe, some commodity prices have declined, and China's import inflation pressure has eased.

Three, from the recent point of view, last year's low price was in June and July. Correspondingly, the high point of this year's tail is likely to be in June and July, so the impact on the third quarter's tail factor will be relatively weakened.

There will be no shortage of agricultural products.

In addition, Sheng Lai Yun also pointed out that this year many parts of the country appeared late spring chill, the temperature was lower than the normal year. Severe drought in some southwest and northeast provinces affected the production and supply of some foods, such as vegetables, fruits and beans, which caused the prices of these products to rise.

But the impact of the weather on crops is short term and temporary. China's grain has been in good harvest for 6 consecutive years, and the supply of main agricultural products is abundant. Therefore, there will be no shortage of supply and prices will continue to rise substantially.

Therefore, a number of factors that influence the price rise in the early stage have been alleviated.

From the whole year, price control is around 3%, which should be said to have a basis.

Although the pressure is relatively large, but through efforts, the macro target is possible.