PPI Is Expected To Grow By 6.64% Over The Same Period In May.

In June 7th, the securities market weekly and the CCTV2 "market analysis room" jointly launched the "crystal ball China macro economy May consistent expectations" shows that the average growth rate of PPI in May is 6.64%. In April, PPI rose by 6.8% compared to the same period in April, and the expected value of May decreased from April. If the actual value is as expected, this will be the first time that PPI has been down for 5 consecutive months.

Consistent expectations survey showed that the highest expected growth rate for PPI in May was 7.4%, with a minimum of 5% and a median of 6.75%.

In June 7th, Dr. Fan Fan, deputy director of the international financial research center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters in a telephone interview that in May, oil and other international energy prices had been cut down, but there was little room for continued price declines in the near term, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. So in the next 2 to 3 months, PPI will also linger at high levels.

He Fan said that in the second half of 2010, PPI will gradually decline, and the transmission of PPI to CPI will also slow down month by month. It is estimated that the growth rate of PPI will be around 5% in 2010.

In June 7th, Western securities Macro Analyst Liu Yanzhao told reporters in a telephone interview that at present, the US dollar is at a high point and the future downlink is more likely. This will slow down the downward trend of international commodity prices in the second half of the year. Therefore, the decline of PPI in the second half of this year will be a slow process.

In June 7th, Xu Jian, a macroeconomic analyst at CICC, told reporters in a telephone interview that with the gradual decrease of PPI in the second half of 2010 and the reduction of cost pressure, the profits of home appliances and chemical enterprises will be improved. Although the cost of upstream industry is decreasing, the price of finished products will also go down, so there is uncertainty in the profits of upstream enterprises.

The 51 economists who participated in the survey came from major institutions, including 601988.SH (03988.HK), 601328.SH (03328.HK), Guotai Junan Securities, CICC, Everbright Securities (601788.SH), Haitong Securities (600837.SH), China Merchants Certificate (600999.SH), Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, Paris securities, HSBC, and Standard Chartered bank.