The Bottom Of Viscose Staple Has Been Highlighted.

In recent years, the domestic viscose staple fiber market is relatively calm, and the quoted prices of enterprises remain basically unchanged. At the end of the week, the mainstream price of South market 1.5D maintained at 18700-18800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price in the North remained at 18900-19200 yuan / ton, and the low end price level of the market remained at 18300 yuan / ton level.

In addition, the raw materials of viscose staple fiber, such as short silk grade cotton pulp, are stable at 13600-13800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of two cotton lint market is maintained at 7600-7800 yuan / ton.

Then how will the market of viscose short fiber market run? From the current market operation analysis, the author predicts that under the support of the following factors, the base of viscose short fiber has been protruded, and there is little space to continue to fall.

First, high cost and short running of viscose staple will support its price.

Cottonseed prices have dropped slightly recently. By the end of last week, the price of cottonseed to 1.35-1.36 yuan / Jin in Shandong area (11.5% of oil and 12% of water) was lower than the price of 1.3-1.33 yuan / Jin. The difference was 1.28 yuan / Jin, which dropped by 0.03-0.05 yuan / Jin, and Hebei Gaocheng 1.26-1.28 yuan / Jin dropped 0.05 yuan / Jin. The price of Weixian County oil factory reached 1.36 yuan / Jin, down 0.03 yuan / Jin, and the price of cotton seed in other parts of the country decreased by 0.02-0.05 yuan / Jin.

The main reason for the decline is cottonseed meal, cotton and oil market down, cottonseed pressing no profit, oil factory purchasing enthusiasm is not high, much stop watch, or buy down, but at present, seed cotton prices continue to stabilize more than 4 yuan / Jin, 3 grade lint price is also over 17500, cotton ginning plant has strong desire to cotton seeds, which brings price support for cottonseed market, cotton seed prices stabilized signs of decline, obvious signs of further decline, limited space.

At present, the domestic cotton short staple market has been steadily falling. The quality of Xiajin cotton short staple factory has been quoted at 7900-8000 yuan / ton, slightly lower than the quoted price of 7600-7800 yuan / ton, the general price quoted is 7300-7500 yuan / ton, some of the quotations are 7100-7200 yuan / ton, and the price has dropped somewhat, mainly due to the poor sales of downstream products, the low purchasing enthusiasm of the chemical fiber factory, the refined cotton plant, and the adjustment of the market for pressing down the cotton lint.

At present, the price of cotton seed in the upper reaches is stable and stable. This will play a role in reducing the possibility of further down from the cost.

At present, the market quotation of two cotton lint on the market is about 7600 yuan / ton. According to the loss of 30%, the cost price of raw material of short silk grade cotton pulp is 9880 yuan / ton, plus 3000 yuan / ton (the current cost of auxiliary materials is soaring, and the processing cost is correspondingly raised). The total cost of short silk grade cotton pulp is 12880 yuan / ton, plus 6 point tax, the cost price rises to 13653 yuan / ton, and the profit margin with the mainstream market quotation is only less than 200 yuan.

At this cost price, viscose staple fiber was removed, and the cost of raw materials increased to 15564 yuan / ton after 14% loss. With the processing cost, 1.5D viscose staple fiber has a significant loss.

But everything has its two sides. The serious loss of viscose staple fiber has made its price drop and no drop. In turn, it has played a supporting role.

Two, the price difference with cotton and the stable performance of the downstream market will be beneficial to the viscose staple market.

As we all know, viscose staple fiber and cotton belong to the two major domestic cotton textile raw materials, there is a relationship between them.

Generally speaking, the cotton blending ratio of textile enterprises is determined by the production of orders. Textile enterprises have little room to choose, but some enterprises often adjust the proportion of viscose staple and cotton in spinning raw materials according to their own conditions, so as to produce high profit and low risk yarn varieties.

According to data statistics, the difference between viscose staple fiber and cotton is generally 3000-4000 yuan, and the current price difference is only 1000 yuan, far lower than conventional loss. Relatively speaking, the cost of viscose staple fiber is more significant, and its substitution effect is more obvious in the current market.

Looking at the downstream side, although the overall sales of the cotton yarn Market in recent years are not optimistic, the price has also declined slightly. However, the decline of cotton yarn is far less than that of viscose staple fibers.

For example, 30S cotton knitted yarn from 25500 yuan / ton to 24500 yuan / ton (without ticket price), a drop of about 4%, and viscose staple fiber from 20000 yuan / ton high point to 18800 yuan / ton, reduced 1200 yuan, or about 6%.

From the production cost of cotton yarn, taking 18800 yuan / ton as an example, according to the spinning loss of 1.02, the raw material cost price of raw cotton yarn 30S is 19176 yuan / ton, plus the average processing cost of 4000 yuan / ton, the total cost price of 30S cotton yarn product is 23176 yuan / ton, and the market price of the product is 26000 yuan / ton in the market of Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the price is 24500 yuan / ton without the ticket price, and the profit space is near 1200 yuan / ton.

Even if the price of viscose staple fiber is increased, from the cost point of view, the downstream cotton yarn enterprises can also bear, which also indirectly supports the viscose staple market's decline or even rise.

Three, enterprises limited production and maintenance, market supply and demand relations have been improved.

Funing Australia technology viscose staple fiber production line has been in May 31st for parking inspection, involving half capacity, and the maintenance time will last for about a month.

At the same time, Manasi Shun Quan Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. began to repair the whole workshop in May 15th for a period of about half a month.

In addition, the policy of limiting production in the "three high" industries is being launched, which will play an inhibitory role in the production of viscose staple fiber, thereby playing a supporting role in improving the viscose staple fiber from the supply side.

Taking all these factors into account, I expect viscose staple market to be built at the current price level.