India'S Suspension Of Cotton Exports Will Affect China'S Cotton Market

India has suspended cotton export registration since April 19th, and the specific recovery time will be announced later.

Shortly before that, India had already imposed tariffs on cotton exports, which apparently failed to bear fruit.

On March, Vice Premier Hui Liangyu visited India and signed 100 thousand tons of cotton import agreement. Detailed provisions were not released to the media.

Now, the agreement is losing its value.

India is home to the second largest cotton producing country in the world, and the supply of cotton exceeds 5 million tons, and exports are second only to the United States.

Similar to China's situation, as a newly emerging country, India's labor force is cheap, and the government is vigorously promoting the textile industry.

According to the planning of India textile department, in 2012, the proportion of India in the global garment export market should be increased to 7%.

This goal will promote the rise of cotton consumption in India and drive up the price of cotton.

The actual situation does not need to wait until 2012, and the immediate price has already put heavy pressure on India's textile industry.

The Textile Manufacturers Association of China has been lobbying, urging the government of India to ban exports of raw cotton and waste cotton, and finally facilitated India's tentative export measures.

Compared with China's textile industry, the scale and share of India's textile products in the international market are much smaller, which means that India is expected to seize more room for development.

India's productivity is 35% of the United States, China is 55% of the United States, and the Chinese government is also stepping up efforts to improve the level of textile technology.

Therefore, it is very difficult for India to enhance exports through industrial development.

But another way is already in front of India.

China's dependence on cotton imports is expanding, and India is one of the major exporters.

In addition, China's labor costs have risen sharply, and labor shortages have been seen all over the coast.

This gives India textile industry the opportunity to surpass China in terms of cost.

Therefore, the India Textile Manufacturers Association has strong power to lobby the government to restrict exports.

If the result is remarkable, the period of "suspension" recovery will be out of reach.

China, like India, is also a major cotton producing country. Its output has ranked first in the world in recent years. However, the cotton output in 2009-2010 has been seriously damaged. The data provided by the National Bureau of statistics is only 6 million 500 thousand tons, with an optimistic forecast of only 6 million 800 thousand tons, indicating that China's shortfall in the current year will reach more than 3 million 200 thousand tons.

The recovery of China's textile industry is faster than expected, and the trend of widening gap has been formed.

In this way, China needs to issue more than 1 million tons of import quotas.

The 4-6 month is the time window for quota issuance. After Xinjiang cotton is shipped and digested, China's textile industry will mainly rely on imported cotton.

China Customs data show that in 1-2 months of 2010, China's cotton imports from India reached nearly half of the total cotton imports, the number of 266 thousand tons, an increase of 16 times.

As the mainland textile enterprises gradually rely on imported cotton, the import volume from India will continue to enlarge.

India's measures to stop exports at this time will obviously hinder China's imports.

China will have to turn to other exporting countries, that is, the United States.

According to the prediction of the US Department of agriculture, the world cotton inventory in 2009/10 is expected to be only 1 million 110 thousand tons, down 19% from the beginning of the year, the lowest level after 2003/04.

If India quit exporting countries, the US cotton would be scarce.

The US Department of agriculture data show that exports are exceptionally strong, and US cotton stocks will be hard to maintain until the end of this year.

Therefore, if China does not raise procurement prices substantially, it will not get enough supplies of cotton in the United States.

In addition, a potential crisis is amplifying the impact of India's moratorium on exports, that is, the planting situation in the new year.

The weather is extremely cold in North China, and cotton sowing is far behind the same level. This is often an important factor affecting yield.

The current sowing situation shows that the sowing area of China is hard to recover significantly, that is, China's cotton production will not increase much in 2010-2011 years.

China will import more than 6 million tons in the coming year due to the drop in inventory and the growth of textile industry demand this year.

If India does not provide strong support, the output of less than 3 million tons in the United States will make Chinese textile enterprises pay a lot of price.