Ministry Of Commerce Rumor: China And The US Have Not Reached Agreement On RMB Exchange Rate.

　　 On the increasingly sensitive point of appreciation of the renminbi, some media reported that Zijin Mountain, Vice Minister of Commerce, made a statement during the Canton Fair recently that "China and the United States have reached an agreement on the issue of RMB exchange rate, and the RMB exchange rate will remain basically stable". However, the relevant people of the Ministry of Commerce denied the interview yesterday when they accepted Xinhua News Agency reporters. Yesterday, the China foreign exchange trading center closed 6.8268 yuan against the US dollar, a slight decrease of 13 basis points.

Exchange rate remains basically stable

Recently, some media reported that the Vice Minister of Commerce, Zijin Mountain, said at the Canton Fair that after consultations, China and the United States reached an initial agreement, China's foreign trade policy will remain basically stable and the RMB exchange rate will remain basically stable. However, the Information Office of the Ministry of Commerce said yesterday that the report was not true and Zijin Mountain did not make the above statement.

In fact, before the commerce department denied it, the market has already come to the conclusion that China and the United States have reached the RMB exchange rate agreement. The director general of a financial institution told reporters that Geithner, the US Treasury Secretary, had made a surprise visit to China before. It was just a result of the Sino US exchange rate game. After that, the top Chinese and American executives had reached an agreement on the general direction of the RMB exchange rate issue.

"Therefore, the US Treasury will then decide to postpone the exchange rate report for 3 months. In fact, from the point of view of the United States, it does not want to label China as a currency manipulator. However, the US government also has its own considerations. For example, taking into account the voter situation and so on, and postponing the report has meant that the issue of RMB exchange rate has been reached between China and the United States, but the United States still needs time to carry out the necessary operation within its political system. The official stressed that the US does not label China as a currency manipulator. In return, the Chinese government will make corresponding adjustments, but this is not a compromise of the Chinese government. It should be said to be a diplomatic interaction.

Appreciation is expected to rise during the year.

The expectation of RMB appreciation has already been reflected in the recent foreign exchange market. Since April 1st, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar has been rising for 7 consecutive days, and the middle price has exceeded 6.8260 yuan to 6.8259 yuan, which has hit a new high in the past 10 months. But since the middle of April, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar is not as obvious as that of early April, and fluctuated again and again at 6.8260 yuan. Yesterday, the yuan dropped 13 basis points against the US dollar, closing at 6.8268 yuan.

It is worth noting that yesterday the US dollar / RMB 1 year (NDF) quotation was 6.6245 yuan, and the forward discount USD intermediate offer quoted 945 points, which is equivalent to the market that RMB will reach 6.7323 yuan against the US dollar in one year. Behind the stability of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, the recent NDF long-term discount has been maintained at around 1000 basis points, that is, the market expects the renminbi to appreciate against the US dollar in 1.5% years after 1 years. Compared with the previous market, the forward market discount is only around 800.

In this regard, Standard Chartered Bank estimates that the renminbi may choose to appreciate in May. The most likely way is a small and gradual appreciation. It is possible to achieve a more flexible RMB exchange rate through the control of the intermediate price, and expand the fluctuation of the one or two base points of the intermediate price to 10-20 basis points.

China's anti-dumping investigation on European potato starch

Trade frictions between China and Europe are escalating. Following the EU's countervailing investigation of China's coated paper, yesterday, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced the dumping and dumping margin review of the import of potato starch from the EU. The review shall normally be completed within 12 months from the date of filing, which will end before April 18, 2011.

The Ministry of Commerce said it would reconfirm the normal value and export price of EU producers and exporters according to the regulations, and calculate the dumping margin applicable to EU exporters and manufacturers.

It is understood that, as early as February 5, 2007, the Ministry of Commerce decided to impose anti-dumping duties on Imported Potato Starch originating from the EU, which is also the first case of China's anti-dumping against European Union related agricultural products. Among them, the antidumping duty rate applied by Holland's vivibe company and Germany's Ai Wei Bo potato starch factory is 18%, and the anti-dumping duty rate applied by Rogat France is 17%. It is understood that potato starch production enterprises in China are mostly distributed in remote areas. Once the result is successful, hundreds of thousands of farmers will benefit from it.