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    V: China Has Sufficient Conditions To Get Out Of The Gloom Of The World Economic Downturn.

    2008/7/18 0:00:00 25

    Affected by the downturn in the US economy and the sharp fall in share prices of the two largest mortgage financing institutions in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the United States, there have been significant fluctuations in global markets, foreign exchange markets, futures markets and other markets over the past two days.

    The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets also made anaphylaxis under the hype of short-term speculators.

    Moreover, as the recent price increases in most parts of the world have exceeded expectations and inflationary pressures have increased significantly, the haze is thicker and thicker on the world economy and finance, and there is a great possibility of economic and financial crisis.

    In this case, where will the Chinese economy go?

    It is not only a topic of concern for all investors, but also a question related to the lives of ordinary people.

    Objectively analyzing the fundamentals of China's economy and its internal and external environment, we can see that China's economy not only has six unique conditions, but can take the lead in getting out of the gloom of the world economic downturn, and if properly managed, it can also benefit the world economy and create more quality achievements on the new development path.

    One of the conditions is that China has two international and domestic markets, and the economic operation space is huge, and it has the ability to resist the impact of external demand decline.

    In the past 30 years of reform and opening up, China's export oriented economic policy has played an important role in pforming the economic structure and accumulating national wealth.

    Now, although external demand is increasing, there is a qualitative change in internal demand.

    At this time, if we go along with the trend, expand and improve domestic demand, and bring the potential of domestic demand into full play, we will have another glory.

    What's more, there is still much room for expansion of external demand, especially if the mainland and Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao are closer together.

    Two, China has ample capital, plus market structure and institutional arrangements, which are different from other economies and are fully equipped to withstand the impact of external financial turmoil.

    The accumulation of national wealth in the past 30 years of reform and opening up, the foreign exchange reserves of US $1 trillion and 800 billion, plus the savings of 43 trillion yuan, is not only an economic guarantee and a purchasing power guarantee, but also a huge social financial resource. Guided well, it can inject scarce gold and blood into the economic society and create greater economic and social benefits.

    In the current financial market is not yet mature, capital account is not fully open, which has a "firewall" role that can not be ignored in financial stability.

    Three, China's foreign trade structure has undergone significant changes. The composition of import and export products has the opposite characteristics of the past, and China's economic autonomy has been significantly enhanced.

    On the one hand, compared with the past, the export of primary products of resources decreased significantly, while the import of crude oil and minerals and other primary products increased significantly. On the other hand, exports of electromechanical and hi-tech products increased frequently, while exports of textiles and other traditional products dropped.

    At the same time, the trade surplus is also narrowing, and the foreign trade structure is becoming more and more balanced.

    This change shows that China's external dependence on the economy has been reduced.

    Four, China's investment structure is also undergoing functional changes, which is used to improve the economic structure and upgrade.

    industry

    Hierarchy and quality of economic development

    industry

    Investment, and public services investment to coordinate social development and raise the standard of living of the people have increased significantly.

    One side,

    industry

    Investment pays more attention to comprehensive benefits, pays attention to coordination with natural environment and society, and pays attention to

    industry

    The development of high-end chain, on the other hand, investment in public services not only improves the lives of urban and rural residents, but also changes the consumption behavior and consumption expectations of the people, laying a new foundation for the economic pformation of the whole society.

    Five, China's consumption growth rate has obviously accelerated, the consumption potential has been released, and the consumption level of residents has entered the stage of pformation and upgrading with the economic and social development.

    Judging from the recent two years, the proportion of service consumption has increased rapidly, and the consumption of residents has begun to develop from material consumption to spiritual and service consumption, which is the economic structure of the whole society.

    industry

    Layout is a new topic and has a guiding role.

    The accelerated growth of consumption has an increasingly stimulating effect on the national economy, not only has a significant impact on investment, but also has a significant impact on import and export.

    Six, the increasingly severe world economic environment provides a special opportunity for China's economic pformation.

    On the one hand, the depreciation of the US dollar, the soaring price of raw materials, and the intensification of global inflationary pressure constitute a multiple squeeze for export-oriented economies like China. On the other hand, under the inflationary pressure, global demand will inevitably be suppressed, and the prices of producer goods will turn to the bottom.

    This is an adjustment opportunity for developing countries suffering from price increases.

    As far as China is concerned, the original products of "two high and one capital" will be eliminated, and new products with new and high value-added products will meet the requirements of the "good and fast" development of our economy.

    From this observation, although the current world economy is densely cloudy, it poses a strong challenge to China's development. However, due to the large leeway of the Chinese economy, the strong economic fundamentals and potential growth, and the economy being in the upward stage, it is absolutely possible to find a way to regenerate the economy in the global economic turmoil, to complete the economic pformation, and to benefit the world economy to embark on a new balanced development track.

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