In June, The Trade Surplus Decreased By 20% Compared With The Same Period Last Year.

The latest figures released by the General Administration of Customs on 10 may show that China's trade surplus reached 21 billion 350 million US dollars in the month of June, down 20.6% from the same period last year and a net decrease of 5 billion 540 million US dollars.

Although the trade surplus has dropped sharply compared with the same period last year, experts believe that this is in line with the expectations of the state's macroeconomic regulation and control, which is conducive to the improvement of China's foreign trade structure and the suppression of domestic inflation, without worrying too much.

Statistics show that China's total exports in June amounted to 121 billion 530 million US dollars, up 17.6% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was much lower than that in May. The total import volume was 100 billion 180 million US dollars, up 31% from the same period last year, and the growth rate was slower than that of May's 40%. The total volume of imports in the year of May is 100 billion 180 million.

China's trade surplus reached US $21 billion 350 million in June, though it was higher than US $20 billion 210 million in May, but it still fell 20.7% from the same period last year, a drop of 10.1% over May.

China's cumulative trade surplus in the first half of this year was 99 billion 30 million US dollars, down 11.8% from the same period last year and a net decrease of US $13 billion 210 million.

According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, the analysis of Nie Wen, a macro analyst at Warburg trust, believes that export growth in June has declined rapidly, mainly because of the high base last year and the drop in external demand. The import data show that the substantial increase in international crude oil and iron ore has a more significant impact on China.

Nie Wen said that although the export growth rate of Europe and the United States has declined for some time, exports to emerging countries have maintained a relatively high growth rate of about 30%.

But the continued high price of commodity prices has a greater impact on the economies of these countries, and then affects our exports.

The possibility that commodity prices will drop in a short time is not very large, and the export situation in the coming months may be more pessimistic.

Ma Xiaoping, an analyst with HSBC in Beijing, said exports rose 22.5% in the two quarter, showing a downward trend in export growth, but still acceptable, and there has been no significant decline.

Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist of galaxy securities, believes that reducing trade surplus will help curb inflation.

She said that the 10 increase in the deposit reserve rate and the 6 increase in interest rates last year and the raising of the deposit reserve rate this year were not really a tight monetary policy, nor did they really recover the total money supply in the economic operation.

According to her explanation, this is because the growth rate of China's GDP reached 11.9% last year, and CPI rose by 4.8%, while the central bank statistics showed that the increase in money supply last year was just the same as the increase in GDP growth and CPI growth, or 16.7%.

The increase in money supply in the first five months of this year is also consistent with the increase in GDP and CPI.

This consensus indicates that there is no real contraction in the total amount of money in the economic operation.

Coupled with the high operation of CPI and PPI, it shows that investment is still overheating.

Therefore, if we want to control the excessive price rise, Zuo Xiaolei believes that we should reduce the trade surplus, expand exports and expand imports more rapidly while expanding exports.

At the same time, we will postpone the construction of new large projects and investment in fixed assets, tilt the funds to small and medium-sized enterprises, and help SMEs to tide over difficulties so as to maintain the overall employment rate and economic growth.