New Export Textile Orders Index Close To Critical Point In June

"Life is tough."

In June 29th, a staff member of Qingdao's hair group introduced that the monthly salary has increased by only 60 yuan this year, because the business efficiency is not very satisfactory.

According to our understanding, as a major enterprise in the domestic knitting industry and a key enterprise in Qingdao, the export volume of the group has reached about 4000000000 yuan in the past 1 years.

However, thanks to the appreciation of the renminbi, corporate profits have declined a lot since last year.

However, for similar labor-intensive industries, the situation in the second half may be even more optimistic.

In July 1st, the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the latest manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). In June, the new export experienced a 3 consecutive month of decline. This month is at the edge of the 50.2 critical point (the general PMI index is above 50, reflecting the overall expansion of the economy, otherwise reflecting the economic recession).

The new export orders index in June seems to indicate that future exports are not optimistic.

In June, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was 52, which has dropped for two consecutive months, reaching its lowest level in the last two years.

Manufacturing accounts for the largest share of the industrial economy, which means that future economic growth is also uncertain.

A few days ago, Xie Hongguang, deputy director of the National Bureau of statistics, informed the basic situation of the national economy in a special consultative meeting of the CPPCC National Committee, pointing out that there has been no major change in the fundamentals of the economy. However, there are some uncertainties. For this purpose, macroeconomic regulation and control should continue to maintain continuity and stability in accordance with the general requirements of "controlling total volume, stabilizing prices, adjusting structure and promoting balance", and in the light of some new situations, we should timely improve flexibility and pertinence, and strive to promote sound and rapid development of the national economy.

Export growth slows down

According to the data provided by China Federation of logistics and purchasing, in June, with the decline of new export orders, some exports were not optimistic.

For example, in June, the new export orders index fell 3.2 percentage points from last month.

Among the 20 industries, 8 industries dropped to less than 50, including the textile industry, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry (Gang Tie), wood processing and furniture manufacturing.

Gao Wei, senior economist at China Logistics Information Center, pointed out that the situation of new export orders still needs to be tracked for a few months. If it is below 50 for a long time, it may require great attention.

The export situation of some industries is optimistic and different. For example, the textile industry may be related to the appreciation of the renminbi, and the steel industry may be affected by the high price.

For example, in 2007, Qingdao's development group directly affected the efficiency of RMB 109 million because of the appreciation of RMB. In 2008, the RMB appreciation accelerated, and the profit margin of enterprises fell from 3% last year to 1% this year.

At the same time, because of the inability to predict the speed and extent of RMB appreciation, foreign trade enterprises are afraid to take long-term orders and worry about losses.

At the same time, the export of Shandong textile enterprises to the US in the first quarter was 1.5 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. The export of high-end clothing exported to the United States by the Qili group and Weihai Textile Group slowed down significantly, while the export of Weihai textile group increased by only 6% in the first quarter.

According to the statistics released by Guangdong Provincial Bureau of statistics in June 30th, as a major province of manufacturing and export, Guangdong's industrial profits over the same period last year increased by 4.3% over the same period last year, representing an increase of 44.8 percentage points over the same period last year. In addition, more than 10000 enterprises in the province were losing money, accounting for 26% of the total provincial and industrial enterprises.

According to the situation in 1-5, export growth is decreasing this year, and the trade surplus is also decreasing.

This seems to reflect that exports are contributing less to the economy.

Data show that in 1-5 months, the country exported 545 billion 100 million US dollars, an increase of 22.9%, down 4.9 percentage points, a surplus of 78 billion US dollars, a decrease of 7 billion 700 million US dollars compared with the same period last year.

The growth rate of export delivery slowed down. In 1-5 months, the export value of above designated industries reached 30967 billion yuan, an increase of 17.3% over the same period last year, down 4.3 percentage points from the same period last year.

The decline in exports and trade surplus is bound to lead to a slowdown in economic growth.

In his briefing to the CPPCC, Xie Hongguang said that the current growth rate of delivery value of industrial production and exports has dropped, and external demand has continued to weaken, and the rate of economic growth may continue to fall.

Regulation needs to improve flexibility and pertinence.

Although the impact of RMB appreciation and other factors on export is not small, the overall economy still looks good.

In the first quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) reached 61491 billion yuan, an increase of 10.6% over the same period last year, although the growth rate dropped by 1.1 percentage points over the same period last year.

Xie Hongguang believes that "this fall is in the first 5 years of rapid growth on the basis of a high level of decline, and the magnitude is not large, in line with the expected purpose of macroeconomic regulation and control."

Xie Hongguang pointed out that the current inflation pressure is still relatively large, and there are uncertainties in the factors that influence the acceleration or slowing down of economic growth.

Therefore, the next step is, "under the good situation, we should enhance our sense of urgency. We would rather focus on the problems and pay more attention to the problems existing in the operation of the economy."

He suggested continuing to maintain the continuity and stability of the policy, and at the same time, in order to improve the flexibility and pertinence of regulation in the light of some new situations.

The latest statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics show that in May, China's macroeconomic early warning index was 113.3, and was in a "green light zone" in a stable state, of which the consumer price index continued to have "yellow lights" for 9 consecutive months.

According to the feedback from the China Federation of logistics and purchasing, the proportion of enterprises reflecting problems continues to rise, and the price problem is more.

The proportion of enterprises reflecting problems in June was 33.7%, up 6.5 percentage points from last month.

In the enterprises that asked questions, the proportion of price rise in June accounted for 47%, up 10 percentage points from last month.

Meanwhile, industrial production slowed down in June due to the reduction of new orders.

Gao Wei analysis may be the reason why some production enterprises will enter the repair period after the off-season.

But Zhang Liqun, director of the State Council Development Research Center, stressed that a number of data show that "the state of business is developing in a bad direction, which will affect the economic growth from a micro perspective.

If the domestic demand is properly regulated in the future, it is expected that the market environment of the enterprises will improve and the callback of economic growth should not be very deep.

He believes that the main reason for the current economic correction is the continued tightening of policies to superimpose changes in the external environment.

On June 30th, Zhou Xiaochuan, President of the central bank, attended the meeting of the bank for International Settlements in Basel, and said that the possibility of raising interest rates always existed.

The National Bureau of statistics expects to release the first half economic data in July 17th. It is expected that the State Council will discuss the next stage of regulation and control in July 16th and deploy new economic work arrangements.