Cause Analysis And Prospect Of China'S Fur Industry Downturn

The domestic fur market has seen a sharp decline since the end of last year, and the price of raw materials purchased and sold gradually declined, and sales were sluggish, and a large backlog of products appeared.

In 2007, the average trade price of Pelt was about 50% lower than that of last year.

2007 is a very uneven year for China's fur industry, and fur industry has fallen to an obvious low.

Under normal circumstances, the continued downturn in the fur market also means that the next boom is coming. Some experts predict that 2008 is still a year of intense turbulence in the fur industry.

1995 - 2008, fur market price trends over the years:

In the market of 1995, the highest price of imported blue fox fur has been sold to more than 3000 yuan. Silver fox, blue FROST FOX, smoked color and additive color will sell for 3500 to 4000 yuan, the peak of fur industry, which can be called the soft golden age of fur industry.

But by the 97 year, the price of the global economic crisis has fallen sharply, and the highest price of imported blue fox has been sold for 450 yuan, and no one has asked for it. In the 98 year plus the flooding of the south, many parts of the province were flooded, and our country entered the flood fighting and disaster relief situation, prompting the fur industry to be lower and lower.

After 3 years of adjustment, the price suddenly rose in 2000, and the domestic real estate fox was about 600-700 yuan, with an improvement of about 800 yuan.

The rapid development of aquaculture, the introduction of the original species from Finland, the improvement of the original species, the improvement of artificial insemination, but the neglect of the development of the raccoon. In 2001, the price of the raccoon skin was very tight. The price of the raccoon rose all the way. No one of the domestic wussuri raccoons was able to sell for about 1000 yuan. It was really amazing that the climax of pursuing the raccoon skin fever came into being.

But it did not last long. In 2003, SARS began to happen, which led the middlemen and farmers to go east and West.

At the end of 03, the state promulgated a series of policies, and the further development of reform and opening up, made the national economy rise rapidly, export volume gradually enlarged, and joined the WTO in 04 years, and also led the fur industry to rise again.

But in winter, the weather is abnormal, and there is no snow in winter. Domestic clothing sales are poor. Because of the good national policy at that time, it did not bring much loss to fur clothing industry.

At this time, we farmers should have a lesson, but they do not think so, this experience has not been absorbed.

By 05, mink became a popular maniac, and wearing a mink coat became the climax of the most rich and expensive fashion.

The price goes up all the way, a common domestic mink will be 500 yuan, and a mink coat will be bought for 10 thousand yuan.

At that time, the international pursuit of development, ignoring the importance of environmental protection, wantonly indifferent to the pollution of air and water resources, resulting in another warm winter in 06 years.

Now, at the height of economic development, it is too late to brake.

Fox and raccoon marten market three, three drop, when prices rise high, such as clouds, low time deep sea.

The development of fur industry has both the influence of national policy and external environment, as well as the problems of fur.

07 years with many people's regret has passed.

First of all, in the past 06 years, the high profits of fur farming were frisked, and the eager farmers were ready to make a big effort. Some friends took years of savings to expand the scale of their breeding, but contrary to expectations, the winter of snowy fur industry suddenly arrived, and many unfavorable factors such as warm winter, tax rebate crisis, environmental protection and so on came one after another, which dealt a heavy blow to the fur industry which was already very fragile.

In this rare raw material crisis, farmers are the most basic victims. The loss of their remaining fur is 07 years.

At the same time, most middlemen store goods in their hands, and even the smart middlemen lose nearly 20% of their profits at the beginning. After that, they lose their profits, and the profits after a few years of hard work have vanished.

Processing enterprises and garment factories are at a loss to do so. In the warehouse, a large number of finished goods are sold out.

Incomplete statistics show that over the past 07 years, the number of processing enterprises in China has been over 30%.

Calendar year price list

Calendar year price list

Analysis of the reasons for the sharp decline in fur market prices in recent years:

The reasons for the current fur market are various.

There are both international and internal factors as well as the market itself.

There are some reasons for the low price of fur market this year:

1, the number of aquaculture increased sharply, and the supply of raw materials exceeded the demand.

Because fur market is optimistic in the past few years, fur breeding has been very effective, which has stimulated the rapid expansion of domestic breeding.

Under the condition of stable demand for fur processing and sharp increase in the number of livestock, all kinds of leather sheets have led to the imbalance of the industrial chain, and from the balance of supply and demand to the oversupply.

This is the main reason for this year's fur market downturn.

2, affected by global warming.

Influenced by global warming, sales and consumption of fur products have been greatly reduced.

Leading to a serious backlog of finished products and a slump in the terminal products market.

According to reports, last year, the remaining goods hoarding rate of 50%-60%.

3. The adjustment of national policies will also temporarily affect the domestic fur processing industry.

In order to adapt to the overall situation of international economic and trade integration, the state has reduced the export tax rebate rate of fur commodities from 17% to 13%, and now it has dropped to 5%.

Pelts of fur animals are banned from import and export products.

The environmental protection department has strengthened the pollution control of fur processing plants.

The fur processing industry that is not yet standardized in China is being rectified, adapted and improved.

Therefore, in the short term, it will also affect the purchase and sale of fur.

4, Russia's rectification of the fur market in Moscow has impeded the circulation of mink products.

Domestic mink products are mainly exported to the former Soviet Union and exported to Russia.

But Russia implemented the policy of restricting foreigners to engage in retail trade in Russia in April 2007, and increased the tax rate.

Directly lead to the limited export of Chinese mink products to Russia and the sharp reduction of export volume. The anti fur movement launched by animal protection organizations in some developed countries in the West has also affected the export trade of fur products in China.

5, the impact of fashion trends

In recent years, fur clothing has changed from focusing on keeping warm in the past to paying attention to beauty and fashion.

Fur clothing tends to be populist. The new winter clothes are no longer all fur, but more fur.

Most of them appear on the cuffs, collar and pocket of clothes, and the fluffy fabric makes people feel warm and fashionable.

Long hair needle fur has become fashionable and its consumption has increased greatly.

Therefore, it has adverse effects on Arctic fox fur sales.

6, the impact of international market conditions

Affected by the price of international auctions, the domestic market also fluctuates.

This year, the prices of Arctic Fox and mink are also dropping in Finland and Denmark fur auction, which adds pressure to the domestic fur market.

The fur market is declining this year, not only domestic factors, but also domestic and international influences.

Price analysis of domestic fur market in the first quarter of 08 years:

Mink sales are stable and prices are rising.

Now the market has stable sales of mink raw skins, and the sales of cooked leather are uninhibited. The price has risen considerably before the Spring Festival. The main reason is that the price of sable in Copenhagen auction has increased by 23%, plus the mink clothing sold before the Spring Festival, which has led to the rising price of China's mink.

Now Shandong mink 89cm, the price is about 290 yuan, and the price of mother leather is about 120 yuan.

The price of mink is expected to remain stable in the near future.

Slow sales of raccoon skin

Recently, the number of raccoon skins has been listed on a large scale, and the price has increased by about 10 yuan before the Spring Festival. However, sales have been slow. The main reason is that the market share of raccoon skin is too large, and the leather traders are not eager to catch the skin. Most of them are in a wait-and-see condition, and some deep processing units are not processed yet, so the price changes of the raccoon skin need to wait and see.

Now the market price of raccoon skin Shandong road 95-100cm is around 130 yuan, and the Northeast Road price is around 160 yuan.

It is estimated that the development of raccoon skin market is uncertain.

Sales of white fox skin are high and prices are rising.

After the Spring Festival, the sales of the white fox fur has been faster and the price has been rising. Now the price of the white fox 95cm Shandong road is about 300 yuan, and the Northeast Road price is around 340 yuan. The main reason is that the product of the white fox has been increased due to the start of products such as postganglionic weaving, and the amount of white fox on the market is not large, which has promoted the price of the white fox fur.

The Blue Fox Skins listed on the market are larger than those of the white fox, with little turnover. Their prices basically remain unchanged before the Spring Festival.

However, the blue fox skin is relatively small, and some garment manufacturers have not yet started. It is estimated that the price of blue fox will go up with the increase of consumption.

Silver fox fur sales steady, Silver Blue Fox sales faster

Silver fox listed a larger volume, stable sales, prices less than before the Spring Festival, now 1 meters silver fox good road price in Shandong about 400 yuan, Northeast Road price of about 460 yuan.

Silver blue fox skin due to the price of the Finland auction before the Spring Festival rose 10%, so the deep processing unit is optimistic about it, so the sales are relatively smooth. Now the good price of the East Blue road is about 300 yuan, and the Northeast Road price is about 340 yuan.

Silvery blue is expected to run smoothly in the near future.

Rex rabbit skin sales gradually increased, prices rose slightly.

Recently, the rex rabbit fur market is more stressful and the price has risen slightly. Now the price of clothing road for Rex rabbit skin is about 55 yuan, and the price of good mattress road is around 35 yuan. Because of the quality problem, the bulk trading in the market is mostly around 30 yuan.

The price of marten will drive the market of Rex rabbit skin, and the price of Rex rabbit skin will gradually recover when the cost of feed increases and the supply of goods is tight.

Fur market forecast in 2008:

The nightmare of fur market in the past 07 years has passed. The damaged fur industry is like the first spring rain after the fire. It is not easy to survive. But whether farmers, middlemen or processing enterprises persist, there will be hope.

Many people in the industry believe that this crisis needs to be adjusted in three years to recover gradually. However, according to the international comprehensive situation, the low tide of fur industry in the world has changed after 08 years.

Mainly in the following situations:

One or 08 years of winter may be a bit late, but it should be considered as a cold winter.

In the 08 year, the retail market related to Russia has been selling well, far beyond the expectations of the industry.

In the 08 years before and after the Spring Festival, many cities in southern China experienced severe cold, which made many backlogs of winter clothes available.

Two, the price of fur raw materials reduced the cost of fur clothing, which made people who wanted to buy fur clothes in previous years finally got their wish after constant price cuts, which stimulated the potential consumption of fur clothing in varying degrees.