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China'S Manufacturing Industry Will Not Surpass The US Next Year.

2008/8/29 13:39:00 24

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It is not very meaningful to discuss the year when China's manufacturing industry surpasses the US.

The women workers of easte crafts company in Hanshan County, Anhui province are busy making up a group of cartoon toys to be exported to Singapore.

In fact, it is of little significance to discuss the year of China's manufacturing industry surpassing the United States.

"Let me put it straight," the business news August 28th. "The only way for the Chinese manufacturing industry to overtake the US next year is that the United States is facing some kind of economic disaster."

In August 20th, chairman of the American Manufacturers Association John Engler very frankly questioned the prediction that China will replace the United States as the world's largest manufacturing power.

The prediction was released in August 11th by the financial times.

More than a week later, engre wrote for the financial times, indicating that he and other members of the American Manufacturers Association strongly opposed this prediction.

The American Manufacturers Association is strongly dissatisfied.

In August 11th, the financial times cites a forecast report by Global Insight, the US authoritative research institute, that the value added of global manufacturing will reach 11 trillion and 783 billion US dollars next year. China will occupy 17%, while the US will retire to second, 16%, which will end the dominance of the United States in the global manufacturing industry over the past 100 years.

According to the financial times, China overtook the United States as the world's largest manufacturing country, 4 years ahead of schedule.

Just last year, Global Insight economists insisted that the leading position of the US manufacturing industry is expected to last until 2013.

However, as the US economic growth decelerated, they sharply lowered their expectations for us manufacturing output in the next two years.

The forecast led to a strong opposition from the members of the American Manufacturers Association.

Engler believes that China is far from catching up with the United States next year. "Even if China can maintain its annual growth rate of more than 10% of the manufacturing industry, it will not be able to reach the level of manufacturing output in the United States until nearly 2020".

There are deviations in the financial times.

Hank Cox, a spokesman for the American Manufacturers Association, even believes that there are problems in the statistics quoted by the financial times.

Cox said that the conclusions of Global Insight were misquoted.

"Global Insight did not say that China's manufacturing industry will surpass the US next year," the Financial Times reporter said.

Jim Dorsey, director of the Global Insight news Liaison Department, told the US media that the financial times and Global Insight used different measurement methods, so they came to different conclusions.

He disclosed that the original report said: "recently revised forecasts indicate that China will surpass the United States and become the world's leading manufacturing power, and the time will be ahead of the original forecast.

In the form of real added value, China's share of the global manufacturing industry is expected to surpass that of the United States from 2016 to 2017.

It is sooner or later to go beyond scale.

"In fact, it is of little significance to discuss the year in which China's manufacturing industry surpasses the US."

Song Hong, a researcher at the Institute of world economics and politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with the International Herald guide. "It's a matter of time for Chinese manufacturing industry to surpass the US in terms of scale."

Song Hong said that China's manufacturing industry is growing rapidly and is on the rise.

Even at present, due to industrial upgrading, some small and medium-sized factories have closed down, and the momentum of industrial pfer from foreign capital to China has slowed down, but the overall upward trend has not changed.

The manufacturing industry in the United States has been declining because of industrial pfer.

"It is a pleasure to surpass the US, but to see the gap, it is difficult for Chinese manufacturing to surpass the US in terms of quality."

Song Hong analyzed that this is mainly due to the pfer of industries in developed countries, leaving behind high-end manufacturing, and the pfer to China is mostly low-end.

Like Germany and Japan, China's manufacturing industry has outperformed them in terms of scale, but the gap in quality is difficult to overcome.

Global Insight's report also pointed out that China's overtaking the US mainly benefited from the rapid expansion of market share of textiles, basic metal products, computer equipment, household appliances and mineral products.

"The United States will continue to maintain its leading position in some high value-added manufacturing industries such as aerospace, pharmaceutical and special equipment manufacturing."

"China's current" world factory "title has mixed a lot of water.

Mei Xinyu, an Associate Research Fellow of the international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, thinks that foreign capital accounts for a large proportion in China's manufacturing industry. Even if a large part of the production of domestic enterprises belongs to the OEM process without independent core technology, the "turning the world manufacturing industry pattern into a fundamental turning point is too early".