How To Operate Under The Signal Of Policy Turn?

From the 13 meeting of the Central Committee, we found that the focus of regulation is likely to be changed from "preventing overheating and inflation" to "taking account of stable economic growth".

Based on this change in macro policy structure, the external environment of the market is expected to gradually slow down.

The pformation of this environment is bound to reflect the market behavior, resulting in the market expected to change, the market is expected to get out of the bad situation of unilateral decline.

Against this background, we can start to pay close attention to the relevant policy opportunities before and after the Olympic Games, and do a good job in digging up the possible strong plate preparations in the middle of the future.

First, tightening and easing the Olympic market is still available.

Under the background of slowing down the external environment, management will have a strong desire to create a wave of Olympic Games.

From this point of view, the Olympic important time is still the most important in the stage market.

We believe that regulators, for political reasons, are likely to sacrifice some capital market policies before the Olympics to restore market confidence.

What is more important is that when the macro policy turns to be relatively positive, the impact of the favorable policies of the capital market will have different effects on the market structure, which is worth reconsidering.

Two, various departments intend to stabilize the capital market.

The 2008 China financial stability report released by the financial stability analysis group of the people's Bank of China stressed that we should pay close attention to market development, improve and improve the stock market operation system, and adopt fiscal and taxation policies in a timely manner to effectively regulate market demand and avoid large fluctuations in the stock market.

Of particular concern is that the China Securities Regulatory Commission has launched a comprehensive assessment of the opening up of the securities and capital markets, and will further develop its open policy in the light of the assessment results.

The further opening of the securities and QFII by the joint venture license actually reflects that management has changed its view of the market and began to think about how to guide peripheral capital into the market.

Another concern is that the SFC also emphasizes the need to gradually open up the market in a safe environment. At the present stage, it is worth considering whether opening to the outside world is due to the relative security of the stock market's financial environment.

It is clear that all sectors related to the stock market are currently willing to stabilize the market, which coincides with the change in the macroeconomic regulation pattern at the highest level.

Three, stabilize the market - banking sector is the medium term benefit sector.

It is obvious that bank property is the hardest hit area of tightening control. Whether it is to suppress asset price bubbles or to tighten the supply of funds, it is the first to bear the brunt of the impact of bank property.

Therefore, we also have reason to believe that once the central financial work focuses on stabilizing the property market and stock market, the tightening of monetary policy will begin to slow down.

The turning point of policy keynote will actually cause the market to have a big deviation to the bank real estate's anticipation before and after. We also need to pay attention to the development of the "rectification" market of the banking real estate sector after the market expectation is reversed.

In addition, from the perspective of policy stability and restoring market confidence, the stock market has a good political demand before and after the Olympic Games, and only by stimulating the rebound of banking property through policy, can we really stabilize the index and restore market expectations.

It is worth emphasizing that in the long run, we still need to realize that the slowdown in economic growth is inevitable. The continued high growth of financial real estate is not realistic.

Therefore, the definition of this plate should be limited to the understanding of the stage market, and it belongs to the market rebound and market demand.

Four, the integration of central enterprises is still a long-term focus.

This column has always stressed that the integration of assets of the central enterprises is the consistent thinking of the SASAC and is the only way to meet the requirements of the adjustment of the highest level industrial structure.

This determines the irreversibility of integration and acceleration of central enterprises. It also determines that in the next period of time, the concept of capital injection and reorganization will continue to ferment.

Shanghai Securities News 12 reported that at least Shanghai, Henan, Heilongjiang, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Chongqing, Yunnan, Shanxi, Shanxi, Shanxi, and other 12 provinces (cities) state owned departments issued a specific document containing the integration of local state-owned assets through the capital market, so as to rapidly expand and strengthen local state-owned enterprises.

Moreover, the local state-owned assets departments have formulated a timetable for securing assets by the end of 11th Five-Year.

By the end of 2007, the assets of local state-owned enterprises were about 17 trillion and 880 billion yuan.

Even in the next two years, only 10% of the securitization is realized, but at least 1 trillion and 790 billion yuan can be injected into A shares.

Moreover, we need to consider the larger scale integration actions of central enterprises.

Regardless of the macroeconomic policy background, the interests of local governments and the economic development trend of industrial restructuring, asset integration and mergers and acquisitions will be the main highlight of the medium and long term economic development and the main black horse habitat of the stock market.

From this point of view, as long as the external environment of the economic development is alleviated and the long-term policy structure has improved, the funds from the OTC will probably give priority to asset injection chips.