An Old Shareholder'S Awaken To The World

Recently, around the management level should not rescue the market, media, experts, reporters, ordinary people, members are clamour, stock market ups and downs such an economic proposition has spread to a social problem.

As an old stock investor, I feel obliged to clarify some concepts that people are deliberately confused. After seeing this, we should think about how to face the stock market.

First, the United States does not save the stock market.

As we all know, the US economy suffered a "subprime mortgage crisis" instead of "stock market crash" and "stock market crash". Therefore, the so-called "rescue measures" of the US is not saving the stock market.

In the mainland of China, some people call the crisis in the United States "subprime mortgage crisis". Its full name should be "sub prime mortgage crisis".

The crisis in Guangdong, Hongkong and the United States is called "sub crisis", which is "sub mortgage crisis".

What is "mortgage", that is, borrowing money to buy a house, that is, "loan institutions (banks, etc.) hold you to expose your skin (high interest rate)".

Obviously, "sub crisis" is more responsive to the essence of crisis than the "subprime crisis".

The so-called "sub" refers to the credit rating of a person whose loan ability is not enough. "Subprime mortgage" is someone who borrows money to pay insufficient capacity to buy a house, of course, the mortgage interest rate is higher.

This is a financial innovation, it is a good thing, so that more people can live in their own house, good.

However, things changed when the mortgage buying agencies of the "secondary" credit were packaged and packaged as bonds.

That is to say, lending institutions (banks, etc.) do not lend you money to buy people to press you to expose your skin (but also high interest rates). Instead, they turn debt into bond issue and listing, so that investors and speculators of the bond market can be fired as chips, and the risk is handed over to the market.

In this way, "sub mortgage" is a very good financial innovation, in the name of new things, and continues to grow and expand.

It was nothing.

Later, the speculators of the market had mortgaged the "sub" bonds to the lending institutions to borrow money and then fired "sub" bonds or stocks. What's more, the "paper made ball" was gradually turned into a big snowball after being rolled several times by snowflakes. No one remembered that the middle of the snowball was made of "hollow paper".

It turns out that the US real estate market keeps rising, and the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates. Finally, one day, people who are "sub mortgages" can no longer repay the interest on loans. The big snowballs of the "sub" bonds have begun to break down, and the loans of the lending institutions have gone nowhere, and the banks that have made loans to the "sub" institutions have also been dragged down, so that the financial market is on the roof, and the storm is forming. Most financial institutions are short of cash turnover, and the Federal Reserve has to reduce the discount rate to solve the bank's catastrophe.

Financial institutions can only survive by breaking their arms, tightening loans and recovering loans. Enterprises and financial institutions that rely on credit revolving will go bankrupt and real economic growth will stop.

Having understood the essence of the "crisis", we know that all kinds of policies in the United States save banks and other financial institutions, and save the "bond market" rather than the stock market. The stock market has fallen due to the impact of the "next crisis". However, the stock market in the United States has not suffered a stock disaster, and the rate of decline is not large.

Second, everyone is saying, "A shares fell from 6124 points to 3300 points and fell by more than 50%", but the trumpets deliberately avoided the fact that they rose from 1080 to 6124 and went up 467%, which is an ulterior motive.

The common sense of economics is that when a market has an average price earnings ratio of more than 30 times, its essence is that the investor recoup the investment cost for 30 years, so the normal investor can not invest.

In December 2005, the number of A shares on Shanghai Stock Exchange was 1080 points, and the average price earnings ratio of the market was 16 times that of the whole market.

In October 2007, when the number of A shares reached 6124 points, the average price earnings ratio of the market was 71 times. The whole market had no investment value, and the market bubble had been infinitely large.

At the beginning of December 2006, the average price earnings ratio of the Shanghai market exceeded 30 times, and the whole market entered the crazy stage.

A large number of new investors and new people came into the market after May 2007 to participate in market competition, hoping to sell chips to the last person who was more foolish than himself.

6100 do not run, fall for the first time to 5400 do not run, rebound to 5400 of the neckline does not run after the fall, 4600 do not run, 4000 do not run, then the new arrival of the silly people have already violated their own chips to the more foolish people than their original intention.

Now, we all followed the trumpeter down 50%, and forgot the crazy rise of 467% blowing big bubbles. The trumpeter had ulterior motives.

Third, 5.30 of the intervention market policy is indeed not appropriate, but it is the dealer.

In May 2007, the new investors without any risk meaning drove into the market under the driving effect of money making. In May 28th, 38 new investors opened their accounts to enter the market.

Old shareholders know that the old stock jumps between different stocks just to help the dealer lock the chips. The dealer can not earn the money of the old investors. The dealer can only make money for the new investors, and a large number of new investors are crazy to enter the market, so the banker will certainly ship the goods in large quantities.

If new investors are allowed to enter the market crazily, there will be countless new investors who are forced to pick up the last bar at high position and stay at the top of the mountain.

In the middle of the night, the management issued a stamp duty policy to suppress the rise of the stock market because of conscience. Almost 100% of the makers were put into the market, and the retail investors could run out in 530 days, and finally set the market at the top of the stock market.

However, the retail investors did not know that the meat cut off from the field could not be maintained, resulting in 530 of the two months after 1/3 of the banker left in the oscillation and caught the retail investors.

Under the intention of the dealer to pull up the shipment, under the bewildments of the economist's "value investment" and the "golden 10 years" of the dealer, in the late July, the retail investors are still crazy about entering the market, script src=>.