2008, Textile And Clothing Exports, "Scenery Is Hard To Re".

Textile and clothing export is China's traditional export strength.

Since 2003, China's textile exports have maintained strong growth and export volume has been rising. In just a few years, it has increased from 79 billion US dollars in 2003 to US $144 billion in 2006.

In 2006, the import and export volume of textiles and clothing was 162 billion 60 million US dollars, up 22.6% over the same period last year, accounting for 9.2% of the total volume of trade in goods.

Among them, exports amounted to 144 billion US dollars, an increase of 25.2% over the same period of last year, and a surplus of US $125 billion 900 million for the whole year, an increase of 28.6% over the same period last year, which is 70.9% of the total trade surplus of China's goods.

In the 1-8 month of 2007, China's textile and clothing exports reached US $111 billion 730 million, up 19.5% over the same period last year.

However, because of the decline in export volume, the export growth rate dropped by 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, showing a decline in growth rate and volume reduction.

In 2007, the Chinese government adjusted the foreign trade policy in an all-round way to narrow the surplus and expand the import policy orientation, replacing the export oriented foreign trade strategy for many years.

On the micro level, the export tax rebate rate has been further reduced, the threshold of processing trade has been raised, and the measures of environmental protection and energy conservation have been intensified.

The adjustment of a series of foreign trade measures and the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the fierce competition in international trade and frequent trade frictions make textile and clothing exports face a very complicated situation.

Overall, under the influence of many factors, China's textile and garment exports will maintain a relatively stable growth pattern in the 2008 and the next few years.

From the perspective of the development of the domestic textile industry, the "blowout" development era of China's textile production has basically come to an end. In the future, it will be difficult to continue to form a big breakthrough on the scale.

In the textile industry, the state will determine "11th Five-Year" with "adjustment" as the keynote, while it will also provide supplementary policies and measures in terms of "limiting production capacity". The rapid expansion of production capacity will continue to be restricted by funds, raw materials, resources and so on.

The regulation and control of textiles and clothing by the state is also an important factor affecting its export.

It is no coincidence that the export tax rebate rate for textile and garment is not accidental. From a macro perspective, the reduction of export tax rebate rate is a step of the national macro-control to attack "combined boxing".

The information provided by the textile industry association shows that the export rebate rate of clothing, viscose fiber and products has been reduced to 11% and 5% since July 1, 2007, due to the adjustment of the national export tax rebate policy. In the 1-8 months, the profit loss of Enterprises above designated size was about 3 billion 200 million yuan, while the profit loss was 11 billion 500 million yuan based on the total export volume of the industry.

In July 23rd, the 1539 tariff numbers of the textile industry were included in the "processing trade restriction catalog". The implementation of bank guarantee for the management of gold and Taiwan accounts has also brought greater pressure to export enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises.

Third, the continued appreciation of the renminbi is a real difficulty for textile exporting enterprises.

Despite certain expectations for the appreciation of the renminbi, some negative effects were also resolved through positive order negotiations and internal adjustment. However, according to the data from the textile industry association, in 2007 1-8, the profits of Enterprises above Designated Size in the textile industry were reduced by about 9 billion 600 million yuan, and the total industry profit loss was about 30 billion 600 million yuan.

In addition, the severe international export environment poses a real challenge to the export of textile and clothing.

Although the agreement between China and Europe expired at the end of 2007, the views from the EU were not uniform.

Not long ago, the European Union's ten major industry organizations, including the European clothing and Textile Organization, sent a letter to the chairman of the European Commission, Barroso, who complained that the EU government's implementation of the anti-dumping policy was ineffective. It indicated that the EU industry might set off a new wave of anti-dumping in the future.

The United States carries out anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese coated paper, which is a dangerous signal.

At the same time, the US textile industry has recently proposed 9 suggestions for China's "unfair trade practices", and urged its government to increase and speed up anti-dumping and countervailing efforts on China's textile and clothing industry.

Anti-dumping and countervailing measures are much more harmful to China's textile exports than mere quantitative restrictions.

Once the survey is launched, the confidence of importers will be severely damaged and the Chinese products will be squeezed out of the market quickly. The share of Chinese textiles and clothing in the European and American markets will be seriously weakened.

The current trend in Europe and the United States is a very dangerous signal, which should arouse the attention of the government and enterprises.

In addition, the cost of production factors, especially the rising labor costs, also weaken the competitiveness of textile export enterprises in the international market.

According to Gao Hucheng, Vice Minister of Commerce, in the domestic textile industry, the rising labor cost has been 3 times to 4 times that of the Southeast Asian neighbors, and the labor cost in the coastal areas is close to US $1 per hour.

Developing countries are gradually becoming China's strongest competitors in low value-added products.

The China Textile Import and Export Chamber announced the summary report of the 102nd Canton Fair textile and clothing hall in November 2007.

According to the report, the export turnover of the Canton Fair has just dropped by 3.4%, which basically reflects the export trend of China's textile and clothing in the coming year.

On the whole, in the case of national macroeconomic policy adjustment, multi factor compression of corporate profits and international friction, the growth of textile and clothing exports will have a certain degree of decline in the future, and the expected export growth will be between 15-20%.

However, in the case of export disruption and export to domestic sales, the textile industry will accelerate its pace of product restructuring.